ICmarkets

Potential Gartley pattern with nice confluence on the 4hr chart

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
204 9 3
Weekly view: Following the pin-bar rebound seen from the weekly swap level 0.8064, last week’s action saw very little follow-through selling. Instead, we can see that price managed to close the week (0.7927) above a weekly swap level positioned at 0.7845, potentially indicating bullish strength.

Daily view: The daily picture on the other hand, reveals that price closed the week in between a daily supply area seen at 0.8074-0.8006 (located just below the weekly swap level 0.8064), and a daily demand zone coming in at 0.7785-0.7850 (positioned just below the weekly swap level 0.7845).

4hr view: In the overall scheme of things, Friday’s trading sessions were not really anything to get excited about. A mediocre rally was seen from the psychological limit 0.7900, with price seen slightly rebounding from the mid-level number 0.7950 into the close. Nonetheless, the current price action on the 4hr chart is in the process of forming a very-nice looking 4hr Harmonic bullish Gartley pattern with almost perfect symmetry.

Thanks to the reaction at 0.7950, we now have a potential 0.618 retracement of A-B forming a C point. Assuming that price drops from here this week, which we think it will (we’ll explain why in a moment), it will likely hit the 4hr Gartley reversal zone shaded in yellow coming in at 0.7832/0.7801. In addition to this, this reversal zone is also sitting within a clear 4hr demand area coming in at 0.7785-0.7835, with additional round-number support seen at 0.7800.

Why do we think prices will decline in value this week? Well, assuming price manages to consume the round number 0.7900, the pathway south is likely ‘demand free’ so to speak. Our rationale behind this idea comes from the very obvious demand consumption tails seen marked with a small red line at: 0.7862/0.7874/0.7883. These tails were likely sent south fill unfilled buy orders around the 0.7900 area in order to continue rallying higher, thus with little buyers left here, price should theoretically be free to drop.

With regards to the higher timeframes, a drop in value down to the 4hr Harmonic reversal area will effectively place the Aussie deep within daily demand at 0.7785-0.7850, which, as we’re sure you’ll agree, certainly adds more confluence to any longs taken from here.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 0.7832/0.7801 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.7780).

• Sells: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).


Cryptoelite PRO
2 years ago
Perfect gartley here people
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Cryptoelite PRO Cryptoelite
2 years ago
snapshot
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Cryptoelite PRO Cryptoelite
2 years ago
IC - Really like the inclusion of harmonic's in your analysis. Btw are there specific time you release analysis or is it more based on when you see something developing?
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ICmarkets PRO Cryptoelite
2 years ago
Hi Skuffone,

It is usually released on our main website http://www.icmarkets.com/blog/category/market-analysis/ at around 3/4 am GMT.

Harmonics has proved to be very beneficial in our trading. We noticed we missed a lot of opportunities over the past couple of weeks :(

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ICmarkets PRO ICmarkets
2 years ago
You know, we just finished our analysis for the day and did see the completed version of the Gartley pattern you just posted - great eye! Did you take this trade? We have found one can potentially use limit orders when it is supported by structure.
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Cryptoelite PRO ICmarkets
2 years ago
Hi IC - thanks for your response, I didn't know about your blog... Interesting point about using limit orders, my trading plan requires a candles stick reversal pattern to play out first in this case you can see below my example. Limit order would limit risk I see, but will it improve success - i'm not sure...

Ps. Is it possible you can post a chart showing the how the Swap level is derived?

snapshot
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Cryptoelite PRO ICmarkets
2 years ago
Hmmm I wonder if this comment relates to the massive gartley on DXY :-$
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Cryptoelite PRO Cryptoelite
2 years ago
"We noticed we missed a lot of opportunities over the past couple of weeks"
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ICmarkets PRO Cryptoelite
2 years ago
Hi Skuffone, look back at my charts in the archive buddy. There are plenty with swap levels on. Simply put, a swap level is essentially an S/R level, nothing more.

IC markets
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