Daily Timeframe: The daily picture shows that for the past three weeks, price has been ranging between two daily swap levels (0.7844 and 0.7691). However, as you can probably see, price has recently been teasing the upper range resistance at 0.7844, which, from where we’re standing looks poised for a breakout!
4hr Timeframe: For those who read our last report on the Aussie, you may recall us mentioning that we were watching for lower timeframe buying confirmation around the 4hr demand area at 0.7741-0.7771. Unfortunately, no signal to buy was spotted, which is a shame since as you can see price did indeed rally higher from here.
Buying seems to be more favorable at the moment for two reasons. Firstly, price is currently positioned just above weekly demand, and secondly, the is also showing signs that price may breakout higher (see above). Nevertheless, our team cannot condone buying just now, for the simple reason that the daily swap level could still repel the market. Therefore, what our team is watching for, or dare we say ‘hoping’ for, is price to close above the daily swap level, which will likely do three things:
1. Stop out the sellers attempting to fade this level.
2. Trap any breakout buyers.
3. Clear the path north up to 4hr supply coming in at 0.7905-0.7881.
However, if price does indeed close above this level, we do not want this 4hr supply area to be hit. The reason for this is because this supply area will be our target for any longs (if price retraces of course) taken from either the round number 0.7800, or the 4hr demand area mentioned above at 0.7741-0.7771 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.7776) as per the green arrows.
Current buy/sell orders:
• Buy orders: watching for confirmed buys around 0.7800 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level) 0.7776 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.7736).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).