ICmarkets

AUD/USD: Technical outlook and review

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
96 5 1
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly TF: Price is still frustratingly trading within a weekly consolidation area with the upper limits seen at 0.94600, and the lower at 0.92046, with no signs of a break happening just yet.

• Daily TF: Price still remains caught trading between the daily demand area 0.92046-0.92354, and a daily decision-point level at 0.93529. A break above could see prices test daily supply at 0.94729-0.94175, conversely, a break below will likely see a push south towards a daily R/S flip level at 0.91323. Let’s also not forget, if a break below is indeed seen, this would effectively mean that price has broken below the weekly consolidation area (levels above) as well.

The round number 0.93 held beautifully! The buyers used this level to propel prices above an important high marked with a blue arrow at 0.93450, and then up to a 4hr supply area at 0.93866-0.93728, where our P.A confirmation sell level has now been triggered at 0.93711. If the sellers can push below the low marked with a green arrow at 0.93279, we will then likely consider setting a pending sell order awaiting a possible return.

However, if price continues south and does not return, we will be watching the following:

Our original pending buy order still remains the same (0.92807) just above a fantastic-looking 4hr decision-point level at 0.92785. We have also added a P.A confirmation buy level just above (in our opinion) a minor 4hr decision-point level (0.93053) at 0.93076. This area is likely where the decision was made to break above the aforementioned high, so it remains important, however not as much as the level below it (0.92785)! The reason being is we see the lowest 4hr decision-point level to be the overall origin of the rally higher, indicating that pro money may well just use the 4hr decision-point level at 0.93053 as a ‘dummy-fake’ level, in which to push price below to the aforementioned origin, hence we have set a P.A confirmation level there rather than a pending buy order.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.92785) at 0.92807. We have placed a pending buy order here because this level remains untouched, and Is effectively where pro money buyers likely made the decision to push prices above the round number 0.93.
• New P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.93053) at 0.93076. The reason for not setting a pending buy order here is simply because we believe pro money may push below this level to the overall origin of the move up (4hr decision-point level at 0.92785).

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current environment.
• The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below a 4hr supply (0.93866-0.93728) at 0.93711 is now active. The sellers will need to confirm this area by consuming some or most of the buyers around the low marked with a green arrow at 0.93279, we will then consider setting a pending sell order awaiting a possible return.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.92807 SL: 0.92661 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: 0.93076 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.93711 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

angmohlin
2 years ago
Hi, it is good if the publication of new idea able to be short and clear.
Reply
ICmarkets PRO
2 years ago
Hi angmohlin,

We appreciate your response, if you could be so kind as to tell us what you do not find clear about it, that would be most helpful.
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angmohlin ICmarkets
2 years ago
Hi, I find your analysis is very good as very detailing but I think a bit long. Someone may no patience to read.
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ICmarkets PRO
2 years ago
Hi,

Thank you for the advice, it is very much appreciated! We will try to condense them in future, just sometimes it is very difficult to tell the 'full story' without going into detail.

Good luck with your trading!

IC markets.
Reply
angmohlin ICmarkets
2 years ago
Many thanks for your hard works.
Reply
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