xavier_fenaux

AUD / USD: The end of an uninterrupted downward trend?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
189 0 2
Months as the US dollar             continues to grow and all other currencies collapse on the bottom of the drop in interest rates or quantitative easing by central banks. But it seems in recent sessions as the wind changes or at least, that reversal premises are felt.

In Australia, the rate of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) only down for years now to have reached a low on February 3 at 2.25%. At the previous meeting, the markets were expecting even a further decline to 2% ... but that was not the case, and the Australian currency will not even react to this (supposedly) surprise. But analysts do not exclude a rate cut at the next meeting.

However, the AUD / USD remains in a strong bearish situation with ever new yearly lows and lowest in over 5 years!
But daily data after a downtrend channel is formed, crossing the upper limit of the latter must be confirmed by crossing the moving average 20 periods. And this is great, because this MM20 coincides exactly with the highest from late February to around 0.7920.

Therefore, it is time to watch a true reversal signal Daily on this pair which, I recall, just 1.05 almost straight line for 2 years. Late last year, the AUD / USD was trading at 0.95, nearly 2000 pips higher than the lowest achieved last week. In short, the potential is there and bullish reversal premises too.

It is therefore possible to place long swing to the crossing of 0.7917 with an initial stop below 0.78. This will be adjusted during input from 50 pips unrealized gain. Both objectives will be 0.8240 and 0.8640.
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