CapMoore

Monthly Outlook. ABCD Completion Close At Hand

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
96 0 3
The pair has almost completed a harmonic ABCD pattern prematurely
at 0,75. The D-level lays some 50 pips below current low.
The important long term trendline current month, drawn to include
both lows 2009, comes in at 0,74.
Generally, price is trading below Yearly S1 and if we see a close below it, 0,7650,
chances are we will see a continuation at least to a test of the trendline
support, but probably lower, towards 0,72 and Yearly S2.
Note that price closed below SMA200 in January after which it has held
as resistance.
Also, considering the fast PA to the D-level, suggest a reaching of at least
D127 (the 1,272 extension of CD leg) around 0,6930.
Ultimately, if the trendline is broken, chances seem good that price will
retest the 0,60 level, with the D161, Yearly S3 and HS. With bearish
continuation, this could be accomplished during 2015.
If price returns back up and close above Yearly S1, and perhaps above
SMA200, with some strong PA we might have to regard the ABCD pattern
as completed and looking for a target of retracement minimum at 0,8370.
0,8050 is important resistance below that level.
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