justatrader

AUDUSD - Labour Data Release 08/05

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
397 11 6
A decent increase in the unemployment numbers. Basically unemp. rate was steady with an increase in new jobs added + upward revision to last month. In comparison, US NFP was more bullish . (and today's China data was also upbeat).

Last month's Aussie High/Low on unemployment data sits at 0.946 - 0.93696. Watch for price action at these levels.

Since March, the price rally has seen little support, the most recent at 0.92197 but it was mostly a touch and go, which indicates to me that price is moving up simply to pick up some orders sitting above.
I think that the rally might not be able to break 0.945 - 0.95 levels unless a firm support is established.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
A great model. However, regarding the most recent comment, I wouldn't say "Aussie neutral" - rather "Aussie bullish"... :)
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Yeah well, i'm quite disappointed in AUDUSD. But glad I was able to close all my trades before EOD (so managed to sleep well). GBPAUD shorts managed to play out decently so far, so no complaints. But im curious on this pair's path now. There's a missing piece to this puzzle!!

Abt. Bullish... The way I set it up is:

Bullish
--------------------
Actual > Forecast (job nos.)
Unemp. Rate better than expected and better than prev. month
Upward prev. revisions.

From today's release, unemp. rate remained unchanged, so there was only an upward revision and actual > forecast.

In comparison NFP met all 3 criteria, hence the view on calling today's data neutral.

And if you notice, I missed "one very obvious point". Look how price was picked up at low of 04/04 NFP low (0.9222).
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ForceFollower justatrader
2 years ago
Yeah, one cycle from NFP to NFP... And now what? Things in motion tend to stay in motion (for some time only though, because of the gravity :) is there some other force in financial markets that acts as the gravity?) So I can't help being bullish about it. My AUDJPY position has just hit my target. My long position in AUDCHF is working nicely too. The AUD is bullish again...
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alex.a ForceFollower
2 years ago
The coming Monday will be the 9th day to hold this price range. It seems like the price is in the sandwich, strong buyers and strong sellers, first tested but strong buyers might hit it again because the price has not been gone down in 8 days. If it goes down, it should have gone down earlier - the sign of weak buyers. Buyers are willing to keep their AUS because of the interests that they are gaining. So, buyer's force won't be easily die out.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower alex.a
2 years ago
Yep, I agree. I keep trading on my AUD account (mostly because of the prior strength but also the interest), although I start considering moving my funds to the CAD account (mostly because of the strength).
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alex.a justatrader
2 years ago
Your plan sounds like pilot's complete navigation plan ~ Cool ~
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HarmonicGame
2 years ago
There is a good opportunity nearing.
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HarmonicGame HarmonicGame
2 years ago
snapshot
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alex.a HarmonicGame
2 years ago
Harmonically Cool, Dude ~
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ForceFollower HarmonicGame
2 years ago
Yeah: RBA Monetary Policy Statement coming in seven hours. Maybe some good buying opportunity is going to show up. But I'll be asleep at that time. :)
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Man.. talk of ranging pattern... Not a proper move in place. I guess intra day traders might have made some money or got chopped out nicely. So what's AUD waiting for is the big question!!! Not sure how much of an impact RBA minutes will have. Gotta wait and watch. Today seems like a boring day.
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