AUD USD is ready to go down further

AUD USD still can sell. The price broke the trend line last week but now is on the way back to the channel. In the history of AUDUSD, Among channel breakthroughs, 50% of the first breakthrough, the price will be back to the channel. Among those that go back to channels, 30% edge lower than the near low.
If the price goes back to the channel, 70% will try the second break and 30% will edge lower. The second breakthrough does not worth trading totally.
We need to watch the price action closely, if the price goes back to the channel, at least in the near term, can not buy AUDUSD.
Traders draw different trend lines, my analysis is based on my style , just as shown in the above chart.

Trade active:

I need to make some correction. The second breakthrough has great win probability. More than 80% second breakthrough worth trading very much.

Comment:

So, now it seems AUDUSD is very likely to pull back to the channel again. We will wait for the second breakthrough to buy. Of course we can buy the dig inside the channel. But need to keep in mind that 30% probability for the lower price than the previous low(0.7020).

Comment:

I want to try buy AUDUSD at 0.7130

Comment:

two scenarios
1 audusd goes up to 0.73 even 0.74
2 audusd goes down to below 0.715 , retest the 0.7020 support.
the senario 2 is more likely. Around 70% possibility.

Trade active:

it seems audusd chose to go with the first scenario, opened buy at 0.7237, PT 0.73-0.74

Trade active:

closed buy at 0.7245