- Great White
- Modified Wolfe/3-Drives
1 - TG-1 = 0.86946 - 07 MAR 14
2 - TG-Lo = 0.85845 - 07 MAR 14
Watch for completion and adverse excursion > entry point.
Neutral (pending market reversal confirmation)
David - 05 MAR 2014 (after market close)
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
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As of the introduction of this short position, the analysis and forecast offered in the original chart (here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/WvTURpzo/) offered a series of support within a broad bearish background.
The first support, estimated at 0.90099 did see a price reaction, albeit very shallow, suggestive of the bearish pull that continued to weigh on it.
In the updated chart inserted here, we are now drawing a cautionary range ("E.A.G.L.E.", for Extremely Aggressive Level of Entry) where a relief rally holds a high probability of occurrence.
If and once the EAGLE range and the structure low (i.e.: lower-low) yield, then can we expect to visit the 2-4 Line, where another reactive rally would also be expected.
For the time being, I recommend that the trader exerts extreme caution and good money management. The dominant directional bias remains BEARISH on the conditions of structures, support/resistance defined above.
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting
- TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and share with friends and colleagues interested in the market. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep Shark), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on Shark, 5-0 and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
... Read On:
RBA PERCEIVES ITS EXCHANGE RATE AS "HIGH BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS":
1 - 03 Mar 2014: RBA calls its exchange rate historically "high": "The decline in the exchange rate seen to date will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, though the exchange rate remains high by historical standards,"
- Source: http://www.efxnews.com/story/23141/rba-keeps-rate-unchanged-reverts-exchange-rate-jawboning
2 - 06 MAR 22014: The RBA says regarding best exchange rate level: "I don't think the extent of our knowledge about what's correct is that good, but I did think ($0.95) was rather too high. I thought $0.85 would be closer to the mark than $0.95" (as of this week-end, rate sits at $0.90668)
RBNZ Rate Position: "Imminent Increase"
1 - 11 DEC 2013: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler kept the official cash rated at 2.5% on Thursday, but said it is not necessary to keep it there much longer. "It is becoming unnecessary to maintain the current degree of monetary stimulus", regarding consideration of a rate increase.
- Source: http://www.efxnews.com/story/22044/rbnz-keeps-ocr-25-can-hike-needed-meet-price-aim
2 - 29 JAN 2014: "While headline inflation has been moderate, inflationary pressures are expected to increase over the next two years," Wheeler said. "In this environment, there is a need to return interest rates to more-normal levels. The Bank expects to start this adjustment soon."
- Source: http://www.efxnews.com/story/22657/rbnz-keeps-ocr-25-signals-hike-imminent-inflation
INFLATION RATE - NEAR HIGHS IN AUSTRALIA; NEW ZEALAND HAS ROOM TO GROW:
Another fundamental piece left out of my supportive commentary relates to the inflation rate affecting both sovereign economies. Indeed, while both central banks have a mandate to keep their respective inflation rate within the same 1-3% range, RBA is under greater pressure to decrease it compared to RBNZ's.
1 - Australia's inflation rate is currently at 2.7 (0.3 percentage points from max)
2 - New Zealand's inflation rate, at 1.6, (a wide 1.4 percentage point from the max)
I hope that above comments and supportive references offer you a fair explication of the rationale upon which I based the BULLISH outlook of the NZDUSD (here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/cvaM8gr8/), and that it helps you see why BEARISH the predictive analysis and forecasting done on the AUDNZD (here: https://www.tradingview.com/e/5OKs9iez/) may also use that fundamental information as added reasoning for that wide timeframe perspective and directional bias.
Again, I appreciate the most challenging criticism and educational comments, for as long as they sensibly undermine and refute my own analysis, as I would have greater pleasure to be proven wrong and taught something useful than given applause on formed opinions that remain unchallenged, for there is nothing worse than a dead mind dulled in stagnant still waters.
David Alcindor, MOD
- Commitment of Traders & Resulting Net Speculative Positions
AUDUSD = BEARISH
According to the following CFTC's COT data for the week of March 03rd, the directional biases have moved as follows:
$EUR = +
$JPY = +
$GBP = +
$CHF = +
$CAD = -
$AUD = -
$NZD = +
Implied $USD = -
Hence, based on the CFTC's data above, the net speculative positions in AUDUSD held by non-commercial players is BEARISH, despite a net BEARISH implied USD. This suggests that AUD is under greater bearish pressure than the implied bearish data weighing on USD.
David Alcindor, MOD