Weekly closing price: 0.7594
Weekly view: Despite the Aussie remaining relatively unchanged by the week’s close, the unit chalked up its second consecutive selling wick that pierced through a resistance extended from the high 0.8295. As a result of this, the bears may look to head down to an support line this week drawn from the low 0.6827.
Daily view: The story on the shows that the commodity currency closed the week mid-range between supply coming in at 0.7765-0.7714 and a carved from 0.7517-0.7451. Given that the intersects with the above said weekly support line (the next downside target), there’s a good chance that this area will see some action this week.
H4 view: During the course of Friday’s sessions, the H4 candles printed a beautiful array of buying tails, which, as you can see, pierced through the demand base at 0.7581-0.7597. Beyond this area, we have our eye on the combined support/Quasimodo level at 0.7533 (sits directly above a daily at 0.7517-0.7451), while to the upside, the runway looks clear (assuming price can close above the 0.76 handle that is) for prices to challenge the H4 mid-way resistance 0.7650.
Direction for the week: Through our analysis on the higher timeframes, we feel that the pair is likely heading lower this week, at least until it connects with the above said daily .
Direction for today: In that the majority of buyers are likely consumed around the current H4 demand thanks to Friday’s aggressive H4 tails (coupled with the higher-timeframe structures), a downside move, in our estimation, is more favorable.
Our suggestions: Watch for price to close below the current H4 demand. Should this come into view, wait for a retest to the underside of this zone followed up by a H4 close. Once this has been satisfied, a short from here is, at least in our opinion, valid down to the H4 support/Quasimodo at 0.7533.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for a close below the H4 demand at 0.7581-0.7597 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (H4 close required – stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).