We are bearish the Aussie dollar beyond demand at 0.7581-0.7597

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
136 0 3
Weekly gain/loss: - 10 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.7594

Weekly view: Despite the Aussie remaining relatively unchanged by the week’s close, the unit chalked up its second consecutive selling wick that pierced through a trendline resistance extended from the high 0.8295. As a result of this, the bears may look to head down to an ascending channel support line this week drawn from the low 0.6827.

Daily view: The story on the daily chart shows that the commodity currency closed the week mid-range between supply coming in at 0.7765-0.7714 and a support area carved from 0.7517-0.7451. Given that the support area intersects with the above said weekly ascending channel support line (the next downside target), there’s a good chance that this area will see some action this week.

H4 view: During the course of Friday’s sessions, the H4 candles printed a beautiful array of buying tails, which, as you can see, pierced through the demand base at 0.7581-0.7597. Beyond this area, we have our eye on the combined support/Quasimodo level at 0.7533 (sits directly above a daily support area at 0.7517-0.7451), while to the upside, the runway looks clear (assuming price can close above the 0.76 handle that is) for prices to challenge the H4 mid-way resistance 0.7650.

Direction for the week: Through our analysis on the higher timeframes, we feel that the pair is likely heading lower this week, at least until it connects with the above said daily support area .

Direction for today: In that the majority of buyers are likely consumed around the current H4 demand thanks to Friday’s aggressive H4 tails (coupled with the higher-timeframe structures), a downside move, in our estimation, is more favorable.

Our suggestions: Watch for price to close below the current H4 demand. Should this come into view, wait for a retest to the underside of this zone followed up by a H4 bearish close. Once this has been satisfied, a short from here is, at least in our opinion, valid down to the H4 support/Quasimodo at 0.7533.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for a close below the H4 demand at 0.7581-0.7597 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (H4 bearish close required – stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
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