akhostov

AUDUSD Butterfly setting up. Ideas on how to hop on the ride

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
62 0 2
Identify:
  • Price Action currently is in consolidation but still holds Bullish Sentiment
  • Bearish Butterfly Pattern forming. Probably short-term move within greater bullish trend
  • Bounds of structural zone is based off support/resistance , which matches the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement of the larger swing low to swing high move (zoom out of chart to see it).
  • Fib cluster (1.414 AB extension, 2.0 BC             extension, 1.618 extensions of other swing low to swing highs) found in agreement with the 1.272 XA extension
  • Consolidation zone doesn’t touch 0.382 extension. May see a drop, but to keep Bullish sentiment, with a possible reversal at 0.711 - 0.712
  • 3 Drive Pattern found to match with Bearish Butterfly Pattern and Fib Cluster.
  • Bullish RSI Divergence

Predict:
  • Case 1: Price action breaks from the consolidation zone and goes up to pattern completion at 0.718, then drops down to retest structure resistance at the top part of the consolidation zone.
  • Case 2: Price action breaks to the down side of the consolidation zone. Still keeping our mindset short-term bullish , price action can bounce off of structure at 0.711 - 0.712 and continue up to pattern completion.
Comment: Price action looks to have broken through the consolidation in conjunction of Case 1.

The break is probably from the Sydney Market opening.
Comment: Entered the trade @ 16:30 PST with targets set to pattern completion.
Comment: Just to point out, I will be leaving this trade if it doesn't complete within 45 minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision at 19:30 PST. Best to stay out during high-priority decisions and wait for the dust to settle.
Trade closed manually: Exited the trade for +17 pip profit versus my 12 pip stop-loss (Risk/Reward about 1.42)

A good trade but with the bank decision coming out in 30 minutes I would rather stay out and preserve my capital rather than gamble and possibly lose to the point that my stop would be triggered below my stop-loss.
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