AUD/USD: Bullish Continuation/ Bearish Reversal?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
366 2 0
Bullish Case:
Australian Central Bank did not lower rates as many were expecting. Price broke out of a flag consolidation to the upside a couple of days back.. Test of support at ~0.9270 was a success. Still too many shorts. Double bottom . Heavy support in the .9200-.9270 range.
Bullish Trade: Long at .9400, Stop: Close below 8 day MA on Volume , Target 1: .9500, Target 2: 50% Fib

Bearish Case:
Shorts are actually right. Australian Central bank is going to lower rates in the future. Primary trend is still down on the weekly. I am leaning towards the bearish case. Unlike the trade below I am actually going to take Tier 1 size short early on a break below .93700
Bearish Trade: Short on close below .9200, Target: Double bottom lows.
weekly is up
Personally, I use 8 and 21 week MA to confirm a weekly trend (No MA crossover yet to confirm). Price is currently at resistance around the 21 week MA and still below 50 week.
I might be wrong though. That's why I am waiting for confirmation. I have no position yet.
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