darcy kincaid

AUDUSD - Long Term Perspective for investors and traders

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
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AUDUSD             is very much a currency that is commodity driven and that for better or worse is inextricably linked to the rise and/or fall of the 800 pound gorilla, aka China, and to a lesser extent, SE Asia.

Our view is and has been that audusd             will continue to rise LT             simply because there are no fundamental reasons that are currently known to cause most investors to shy away from it. We are not aware of any large block of speculators who have any interest in building short positions in the currency.

From a technical analysis standpoint it is very clear that we are in a bullish chart pattern that has 2 working longs being opposed by 1 working short. Both the Long Term Swing Long as well as the Medium Term Swing Long are still grinding away. The short side of the trade is represented by the Intermediate Swing Short price level.

A range of 1300 pips has been trading for about 18 months and this range could hold for years to come without some fundamental catalyst to break out or down from this price range. Some refer to this as a consolidation or congestion range.

The 2 trades for a long term investor or trader are at these two opposing ranges until there is a breakout from the range..Entry at any other level if trading LT             will needlessly increase risk while adding little compensatory value.
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