Dynamic IIIrd wave has nicely ended at 161,8 % APP retracement of wave I . I expect nice corerrection (wave IVth) at marked red area - there's 38,2-41,4 ret. , 70,7-88,6 % of wave IInd . We will see market on monday.
If we assume that from the July 2011 high we have been in some sort of triangle then we could see 0.99 - 1.0 are as leg e of triangle the continue higher to retest the High of 2011. Alternative would be that From July 2011 high, we have had abc retracement with low in June 2012 and since then we are in new uptrend as ALT in pink in which case we would retrace to 1.022 - 1.001 area then continue high. 3rd ALT which at this moment I have not considered (and would be interested in your view on this point) is that July 2011 was the high and now we are continuing to make lower lows and lower high as it continues to decline below May 2012. I think this highly unlikely based on what the Dollar Index is doing even though AUD is not included in official DXY.
Thank's for a comment. Nice analysis. But check out the weekly chart. We have nice trend line which resisist anothet uptrend. I'm almost sure that we are on the top. As you said the first wave has only three internal waves, what is ageeable with Elliots rules.
Interesting chart. I agree with the general direction of your analysis. Whilst respect your wave counts on your charts I am not sure if in fact the wave 1 (Green) has 5 internal waves and likewise wave 1 (Red) have 5 internal wave, Both of these appear to have just 3 waves. So only as a suggestion I am attaching my approach to this section of the chart. Overall implying that this is a corrective move, which once over, there will be continuation of the larger uptrend. Hope you want mind my suggestion though no guarantee that I am right on this one either. I hope that the link to the chart posted below works. Was hoping to show the actual image for ease of reference but not sure how to. So a link to the image is posted, hope it works.