After 3 days of collapse in AUD/USD exactly from the highs of 0.7835 levels, it is now struggling to break resistance at 0.7727 levels (near 7DMA), on Friday also tested the resistance at the same levels, as a result we think since it doesn't manage to break above decisively on a closing basis which would likely create more potential in the upcoming trading sessions.
The failure swings are likely to collapse to the support at 0.7648 levels in the past as well.
Bear candles with big real body occurred at this juncture and shown their effects so far, however, major trend still looks to be dubious in favour of both bulls and bears.
Rallies are drifting towards 21DMA or 0.7838, that is where bulls have halted at 23.6% fibonacci retracements, further upswings dependent on breach of stiff resistance 0.7727 & 7838 levels
Considering last three months rallies, as leading oscillators diverge to these previous rallies, some sort of skepticism arise ahead of this week’s Fed’s funds rate and next week’s RBA’s decision.
On daily terms, and noise with strong momentum to signal selling pressures as they are diverging to previous minor upswings on monthly charts as well.
While, the current prices have slid well below 7DMAs on daily and 21EMAs on monthly charts.
On delivery basis, if the pair does not manage to hold onto 0.7727 and sustain above, then go short in near month contracts for targets at 0.7648 or even upto 0.7502 levels in near terms is quite possible bet.
On speculative basis, one can use boundary binary puts with ITM strikes of 20-25 pips above and OTM strikes 30-35 pips for targets of 30-35 from spot levels of 0.7702.