Nico.Muselle
Long

AUDUSD - Bullish Cypher revisited

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1274 53 19
Predicted one week ago, this Cypher now is at completion and ready to reverse. On the way down it gave us and ideal AB=CD pattern as well with a retracement up that looked like it was heading to invalidate the pattern.

An ideal AB=CD is where the AB-leg is exactly equal to CD and where BC             is a .618 retracement of AB.

Targets and SL are still identical to the previous post. See also the chart of JasperForex who's got other reasons but approximately the same PRZ for a Gartley Pattern in a Bullish channel.
akyong
2 years ago
We also have a Bat pattern just slightly lower :)
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akyong akyong
2 years ago
AUDUSD: Several confluence in the zone
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Nico.Muselle MOD akyong
2 years ago
Excellent, that is an extra point for the possible trend reversal ! Good find and thanks for your comment !
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And we have a Gartley in a bullish channel
AUDUSD: a Bullish Gartley in a Bullish Channel
-1 Reply
JasperForex MOD JasperForex
2 years ago
High confluence zone with all these patterns!
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Nico.Muselle MOD JasperForex
2 years ago
There is also a bat and a slightly larger Gartley (using previous spike down) that complete at the same level on the downside of the PRZ. :)
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Nico.Muselle MOD Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
The more reasons that indicate trend reversal the better ! Let's grab some pips ! :)
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JasperForex MOD Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
I hear you brother. Let´s collect them!
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Nico.Muselle MOD JasperForex
2 years ago
Sure will try ! :)
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StarProsper
2 years ago
Nico, I always love to see your published ideas :) Keep it up and keep rocking it!
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Nico.Muselle MOD StarProsper
2 years ago
Thanks a lot for your positive feedback ! I'll try to post as much as possible ! Hope you can distill some pips out of them ! :)
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riskmode TOP
2 years ago
Do you guys enjoy busting your accounts taking these ridiculous trades against the trend?
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xFuD riskmode
2 years ago
LOL
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JasperForex MOD riskmode
2 years ago
Feel free to publish your own ideas and show us how it´s done. I can't wait.
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riskmode TOP JasperForex
2 years ago
This was much more sensible
#AUDUSD: Following the Price Action | #forex
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DanV MOD riskmode
2 years ago
Presumably you must feel that if there is a trend, price never make any retracement of more than few pips, which is what I think the published chart is trying to capture, not necessarily against the trend. Otherwise, you might be looking at the same instrument from different time perspective than one published above.

There are time when both work out and both proponent are right. These are no absolute cast in stone. Perhaps you care to illustrate what you have in mind using your chart for us all to learn. That would be more constructive.
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riskmode TOP DanV
2 years ago
I'm just saying the odds of success are much higher trading with the trend. Everyone knows this is true. Does anyone have any data that shows what percentage of the time a cypher pattern going dead against the higher time frame trend actually reaches the 38.2% retracement of CD? I'd be surprised if it was more than 20% of the time and you're not getting anywhere near 4:1 risk reward.
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DanV MOD riskmode
2 years ago

You are 100% right.

But you do understand that retracement often are significant. So what is intellectually so difficult for some to grasp that if risk reward potential are favourable then the trade has some merits. Of course even the trend comes to an end at some point which starts of with what looks like mere retracement and how would you know that is is just a retracement or reversal?

So unnecessary argument for the sake of it does not reflect well on the one just expressing view point as we can all do that. I have always said view points are penny a dozen. If you have constructive observation and one that shows the above idea is completely illogical then don't be shy share is here. Otherwise I think it is an attempt to fan one own ego and glory at the expense of others.

I think you will get the idea.

I personally see nothing wrong even though I don't necessarily trade relatively short term trades.
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riskmode TOP DanV
2 years ago
This trade does not give the opportunity to capture profits from a significant retracement. It takes profits at the 38.2 and 61.8. Has anyone done any research on this type of pattern going against the trend? If you know it in fact does reach the 38.2% retracement without breaking X 40% of the time then it is a profitable trade and it should be taken every time, but without that information it is just gambling.
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DanV MOD riskmode
2 years ago
Riskmode - As already accepted that you could be 100% right. You have asked if anyone have done some research and yet you are quick to express opinion on what might be legitimate trade. It might be ridiculous to you but many do trade it.

Really, without data at hand you simply cannot just turn up and start to call others idea as ridiculous and then ask others for burden of proof for your opinion. So may be you would should go to drawing yourself before being critical. That is all I am saying because others can do the same with your idea. What will that prove.

Anyway, I see you have strong opinion on the matter so I will leave it here. Thanks.
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Nico.Muselle MOD riskmode
2 years ago
Actually a good indication for trend continuation is at least a .382 retracement and the Cypher reaches this more than it does not. Agreed, the risk/reward ratio is not going to be excellent or not as good as a in a bat pattern for example. Nevertheless, if you only trade with the trend, you are missing out on 50% of the opportunities.
Furthermore, I would advise everyone who trades this pattern against the trend to look for .382 and .618 retracements as targets. When you trade with the trend I'd go for the .618 and 1.272 extension.

Like Jasper said, you can always post your own ideas or just ignore all trades against the trend :)
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
"you are missing out on 50% of the opportunities."

Or 50% of the losing trades...depending on how good you're at judging potential reversals.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
If you're not good at judging potential reversals, you'll loose on trend continuation trades as well :)
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
I think the problem lies in trying to fight fundamentally driven trends, with short term patterns. I see it all the time. If you stick to the fundamentally defined trend, you could take some not so good entries and still make money if your stop and take profit levels are sane.
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
snapshot


How hard is that? :p
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
As said before, I am not trying to fight any trend, I just try to take advantage of the (small) retracements that occur in every trend.
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Good luck with that...I'm just saying it's easier to sell rallies in a downtrend. Bigger winners than losers. Not many people are patient enough for the daily chart anyway.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Just one question ... the market is only trending 30-40% of the time, what do you trade if it's not trending ?
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
That's a bold statement.
snapshot
Plenty of big moves to ride.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Not immediately one of the big pairs is it ?
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IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Price hugging band, hold. Moves aways from it, trail stop.
Price starts moving against the trend, sideways, then clear big bar against it, breaching the support and eventually hugging the opposite band. During that chop period you can ride the small legs just using oscillator divergence and price action.
Three rules.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Look Ivan, I appreciate your effort of trying to convert me, but every trader has his own ways of trading and his own trading plan that he or she feels comfortable with. I'm not saying your system is not correct, I'm just saying I trade differently and feel good with that.
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
No problem...If you prefer drawing patterns and fibonacci, stick to it. Was showing a simple system for trend following that the not so adept at finding reversals trader can use.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Thanks, let me master my patterns first, then I can look into new stuff to expand my knowledge ;)
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
We never stop learning...here's to having an open mind. Cheers
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Cheers, and may the pips be with you ! :)
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JasperForex MOD riskmode
2 years ago
I don't trade the Cypher but I am sure Nico can answer this when he comes online. I repeat my question to you: why don't you publish your own ideas so we can all learn from you? That´s more constructive and you would offer more to the community than by calling other ideas "ridiculous".
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LastBattle riskmode
2 years ago
win LOL
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Nico.Muselle MOD LastBattle
2 years ago
Guess all the charts that you posted were winners, right ? ;)
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nice bullish cypher dat sucked
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Nico.Muselle MOD NickCoulby
2 years ago
Nice vocabulary ... Cyphers have a success rate of approximately 60% ... this one did not work out.
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NickCoulby PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
approximatly? hav u mesured all cyphers ever? lmao how can u possbly kno 60%??
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IvanLabrie TOP NickCoulby
2 years ago
$NZDUSD Loses Steam on #RBNZ new property investment rules


I prefer this style...
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Nice potential channel trade, not in my trading plan yet, you can't learn all at the same time :)
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
I took that one, but using a different method. Interest rates decision today. I think you could improve your odds by looking at fundamentals closely.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes I know, another thing I should really start looking into ... the list is getting longer every day :)
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Just watch this: http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
Easy to time momentum for short term trades with that info. :D
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I've got the calendar allright ... only thing is, I'm usually @ work or asleep when news comes out ... So for now I tend to try and stay away if I know news is coming.
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IvanLabrie TOP Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
Ah, well, they can fuel some pretty large moves. I'm all over them. Normally technical setups in larger timeframes align with news momentum and give you a 300+ pip move in a week or less.
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Nico.Muselle MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Good to know, thanks for your help ! Appreciate it !
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Nico.Muselle MOD NickCoulby
2 years ago
For the Cypher I traded till now exactly 58% was profitable and I heard the same number from other people.
If you can prove me the opposite with real numbers, I'll be happy to hear it. Till then, you can lyao as much as you want ;)
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NickCoulby PRO Nico.Muselle
2 years ago
I told you, not 60%.. 58% < 60%
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Nico.Muselle MOD NickCoulby
2 years ago
58% with a good risk/reward profile is good enough for me :)
Maybe you have other requirements and I respect that.
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