ICmarkets

Thoughts on the Aussie this morning...

Long
FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Over the last week or so, the H4 candles have been chiseling out a consolidation between resistance at 0.7615 and support located at 0.7571. According to the weekly timeframe, the commodity currency could be heading higher sometime soon given that weekly price recently connected with a support area carved from 0.7610-0.7543. There are, however, two cautionary points to bear in mind regarding this theory. Firstly, the daily chart shows space for price to continue pushing lower until we reach the support area formed at 0.7556-0.7523, which happens to be glued around the lower edge of the current weekly support area. Secondly, even if weekly price does force the pair north, we have a multiple H4 resistances planted beyond the current H4 resistance, thus making it a difficult buy!

Our suggestions: With the above points in mind, the only level of interest that we believe deserves attention is the H4 mid-level support at 0.7550. Not only does it converge with a H4 trendline support etched from the low 0.7519, it is also located within both of the above said weekly and daily support areas.

Should we spot H4 bulls coming into the picture from the 0.7550 vicinity today in the shape of a (preferably) full-bodied bull candle, we would have no hesitation in buying this market, with the hope that price breaks back into the current H4 range.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Brainard speaks at 5.30pm GMT+1.

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