AUDUSD Ready for the Drop?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
49 0 1
The AUDUSD             is being wedged in by 3 separate long running trend lines . I believe the most likely scenario is a continuation of the long term downtrend. Price recently made an upward outbreak attempt but came back down immediately. This is a very long term trade so I'm talking about a very small lot size.

I see at least 2 ways to play this:

1) Sell at next bullish rally and wait 6 months.
2) Wait for a breakout and retest of the blue line, sell, wait 6 months.

This trade could be worth 700+ pips but it will take time. Any significant upward impulse will invalidate this trade for me. I will be taking a very small short position in the next week or so and then waiting for scenario #2 to play out to make a much larger entry (that will take several weeks most likely).

Thank you for looking!
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