APosner
Long

Can the Aussie bounce here?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
48 0 5
If the AUD/USD             pair can bounce on this pitchfork's lower median line parallel, and break through short-term resistance, this pair can rally much higher.

Since the end of May, this pair has been stair-stepping its way higher from the late May lows of .7150 to as high as .7750. The pull back into the .7600 looks like an entry opportunity as the price has found support on two occasions on its lower median line parallel. The challenge for the pair breaking to new short-term highs is resistance in the .7700 to .7800 area which stretches back to April of 2016. A break of those highs means the pair can pursue .8050 resistance and breaking through to move back to .9000 or higher.

Considering how bearish markets are of raw materials and China, that seems unlikely now, but that sentiment may change in the future.

Current situation:
- The pair has found support twice on the 8-hour pitchfork (see chart below)
- The pair is in an uptrend on the daily and 3-day chart.

Looking ahead:
- Preliminary US GDP on Friday. Janet Yellen to speak on Friday. Although she would like us to think a September rate hike is possible her language is usually dovish and may be bearish for USD in general.
- There is a plethora of economic data next week including Aussie Retail sales and the US unemployment rate

Notes:
- The fundamentals suggest this pair's near term future is driven more by US data and sentiment than Aussie.

snapshot
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