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While recent U.S. inflation index indicators have shown conflicting trends, the market has paid more attention to the CPI than the PPI, with the CPI meeting expectations suggesting a potential slowdown in inflation. Additionally, retail sales and manufacturing indicators in the U.S. indicate a slowdown in the real economy. This has fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut, serving as a major driver for the depreciation of the dollar.
- On May 16, the Australian unemployment rate was announced, exceeding expectations at 4.1%.
- On May 16, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the U.S. will be released.
- On May 17, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for April will be released.
- On May 20, there will be a speech by Fed Chair Powell.
- On May 23, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released.
Currently, the AUDUSD has broken above the previous resistance at 0.66500 and risen to the upper resistance of the downtrend. If this range is surpassed, there's a high likelihood of rising towards the vicinity of 0.71000 to form an upward trend. However, if resistance is encountered and a decline follows, we could expect a drop towards the 0.62000 line. Since the downtrend has not been broken yet, we maintain a bearish view, expecting a decline towards 0.62000.
To summarize, a medium to long-term decline to the 0.62000 line seems most likely, with resistance at the 0.67200 line.
We'll quickly adjust our strategy if movements deviate from expectations.
While recent U.S. inflation index indicators have shown conflicting trends, the market has paid more attention to the CPI than the PPI, with the CPI meeting expectations suggesting a potential slowdown in inflation. Additionally, retail sales and manufacturing indicators in the U.S. indicate a slowdown in the real economy. This has fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut, serving as a major driver for the depreciation of the dollar.
- On May 16, the Australian unemployment rate was announced, exceeding expectations at 4.1%.
- On May 16, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for the U.S. will be released.
- On May 17, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for April will be released.
- On May 20, there will be a speech by Fed Chair Powell.
- On May 23, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released.
Currently, the AUDUSD has broken above the previous resistance at 0.66500 and risen to the upper resistance of the downtrend. If this range is surpassed, there's a high likelihood of rising towards the vicinity of 0.71000 to form an upward trend. However, if resistance is encountered and a decline follows, we could expect a drop towards the 0.62000 line. Since the downtrend has not been broken yet, we maintain a bearish view, expecting a decline towards 0.62000.
To summarize, a medium to long-term decline to the 0.62000 line seems most likely, with resistance at the 0.67200 line.
We'll quickly adjust our strategy if movements deviate from expectations.