Short on the Aussie – quick update...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
223 0 1
Weekly view – Following the rebound seen from the long-term weekly demand area at 0.7449-0.7678, price has shook hands with a minor weekly swap level coming in at 0.7845. However, judging by the sloppy reaction seen (pink circle – 02/02/15-06/04/15) between these two aforementioned weekly areas a few months earlier, things could potentially get messy here again before we see any decisive move take place. From a long-term perspective, nonetheless, the trend direction on this pair is still very much south in our opinion, and will remain this way until we see a convincing break above 0.8064.

Daily view: From the pits of the daily scale, it appears that price has begun to chisel out a consolidation zone between a small daily supply area at 0.7838-0.7802, and a daily demand area coming in at 0.7551-0.7624. However, as you can see, price recently faked above the upper limits of this daily range to connect with the aforementioned minor weekly swap level.

4hr view: For anyone that read our previous report on the Aussie Dollar, you may recall us mentioning to be prepared for the possibility that price would likely breakout north from the 4hr range (0.7817-0.7775/ 0.7665-0.7683) and likely marry up with the 4hr sell zone in green at 0.7867/0.7845 (essentially the minor weekly swap level).

As you can see price did just that, which as a result filled our pending sell order set at 0.7842 (just below the aforementioned weekly swap level). The sell off from here was quite aggressive, driving price south back into the recently broken upper range limit (0.7817-0.7775) and taking out 0.7800. Ultimately, we would love to see the sellers hold the market below 0.7800 today, as this would give us confidence to set our stop at breakeven and maybe even leave the position open over the weekend. In the event that this does occur, we could potentially see this market drive back into the range giving us incredible reward to risk on this trade.

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7842 (Stop loss: 0.7875).

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