KeownArcher
Short

AUDUSD - Potential short coming into play.

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
So after the flash crash seen on the 3rd of January, seeing the Japanese Yen soaring, we saw price recover back above the 0.69750 psychological price region. A higher high was created followed by a higher low as anticipated. A higher high is created around the 0.73000 region, seeing a 2nd touch of the descending trend line , followed by a lower low and lower high as expected. This created the classic head and shoulder pattern and we saw price price tumble from the 0.72000 region to the 0.70055 region, creating a new lower low.

With that being said, a lower high should be anticipated to follow the downtrend. We breached the 0.70250 monthly key, however we were unable to close below it with enough bearish momentum. Price looks short term bullish for now looking at the daily and 4HR time frame. Today looks indecisive as where price wants to move, however we re sitting on the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This may give us a better buy entry for INTRADAY traders seeing 0.70250 met once again before moving towards the 61.8% which is my favoured entry to go SHORT. The 61.8% accompanied with the 3rd touch of the descending trend line as well as creating a double top formation seen with the 28th of February candlestick . This zone shown hi lighted is also seen as clear resistance/support in the past. Downside targets will be around the 0.69000 price region.

However, if this trend line is not respected, my bias will change to long with a break and retest of the trend line . This short analysis will then be invalidated.
Long term I do see AU rising, however for now, my bias remains short.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions, head over to my instagram : keownarcher

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