AUDUSD: Alternate Count & Scenario

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
1251 7 31
In my previous post on this pair, I had noted that the current move up was possibly a 5-wave             move that completed. In keeping with making sure I see other possible outcomes and making sure I am not caught with my pants down, I am presenting here what would be an alternate count that still works in favor of what I am expecting to happen in the here and now. Prices have started to retrace that nice move up and right now (as of the time of this post) have stalled on this retrace. You can see on my chart that prices right now are sitting on the .382 retrace of the last move up.

Before I explain about this alternate count, here is the chart of original count on this pair:

Here in this alternate count, I am counting this move up as an INCOMPLETE 5=wave move and that it has only finished the wave 3 of 5. That would mean that this retrace is only the wave 4 of 5. Being that it could be a wave 4, in keeping with character, it won't be a simple down move and could now be setting up for a small move back up to retest those recent highs in a wave b move. In any case, if this is a wave 4, don't expect that it should go straight down. It could go just a little bit deeper in what would be a wave (a) in this retrace before popping back up in a wave (b) though.

I've filled in a very, very tentative possible bat pattern that would outline this wave 4 move. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRADE IT or this wave count! It is not anything yet. Just my own study.

Here's the overall picture of this alternate wave count:
Where I have placed the end of this up move which would be the completed wave (C) move is very, very tentative as of now but it is a point that should not be crossed and if it is crossed will have SIGNIFICANT consequences! But I'll deal with that later.

As mentioned in my earlier post see Related Ideas: " AUDUSD: A Lesson In Patience and Why I Am Waiting For PA"), I have NOT gone SHORT on this pair yet. But if prices do follow this alternate count, I will be looking to go SHORT upon a retrace back up towards the recent highs.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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well this is really complex analysis, thanks
can it form a cypher, like u drew yesterday, RSI can be divergence
When did I draw a cypher on this pair yesterday?
Hange EverythingForex
I mean your fakeout and divergence which might make cypher, is that possible
The "fakeout" already occurred as prices went up and took out that pinbar. Anybody who sold on that pinbar got "faked out" by it and that is why I never trade on pinbars. It was a very short fakeout though so pinbbar trader's, if they had their stops high enough, could've survived that fakeout but usually, that isn't the case. As for any cypher? I didn't draw any cypher here and there isn't one.

What didn't happen as i thought it might is that the fakeout high was not retested where I would've taken a SHORT. So I missed this initial move down. But if prices now move back up as in this scenario, I will have another shot at getting SHORT but this time with more confidence.
Hange EverythingForex
thanks man , you are niubility !
Hange EverythingForex
your post and update is my favorite on TV
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