EverythingForex
Long

UPDATE #5: ANALYSIS: AUDUSD - MASSIVE Move Underway?

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
1754 13 28
Alright, so when I first posted my post in which I said that there is a strong possibility of a MASSIVE MOVE upcoming in this pair (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: AUDUSD             - MASSIVE MOVE UP COMING!"), I caught some flak about it from certain people practically SCOLDING me about how could I say that? Now, I don't know how big this move up is going to be but of course my models are putting this move up pretty high! What is "MASSIVE"? How many pips would you consider to be "MASSIVE"? Well, I'm projecting at the least several hundred pips! Is that "MASSIVE"? In any case, it's going up now. Nobody can know for sure how far it will go but it has potential to go FAR!

In my ongoing series on updating this move up in which I have been calling to be a MASSIVE MOVE up, this update comes on the heels of my last update (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #4: ANALYSIS: AUDUSD             - Post-FOMC Edition") in which I said that this move up may have just commenced and that if prices move up past and breaks the upper TL of that expanding triangle would confirm the uptrend. Well, that has happened now. And explosively.

WAVE COUNT
So now what I am looking at is where we will see some retracements. First retracement is going to be after the completion of the wave (1). Which of course, means that wave (2) retrace is coming. But when? How far will it retrace? Also, keep in mind that wave 2's can retrace 100% of wave 1's. And there's no way to know if it will. But one place I would guess might be a target for a wave (2) retracement would be a retest of that now broken upper TL of that previous expanding triangle.

PATTERNS
The first pattern here that prices will encounter is a POTENTIAL Perfect Gartley . At this time (the time of this posting) prices are only 2-3 pips away from filling that Gartley . But remember that Gartley's although they have a D point at .786, they often will extend to the .886. In this case, if it does extend to the .886, it will encounter a minor sr structure level. This would be a ideal place for the wave (1) to end and a wave (2) retracement to occur.

Looking forward farther into the future, where would be a good place to target TP1 profits? Well, the most relevant pattern is a POTENTIAL bat (blue) that I have placed on the chart here. That bat's D point is up near to a MAJOR SR Structure. Now, I know there are a couple of other POTENTIAL Bats that can be drawn here that would be valid as well but I only wanted to point these two out first as one is relevant for the very near future and the other for the target.

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jhakas
a year ago
very nice..
Reply
EverythingForex PRO jhakas
a year ago
Will need to wait and see just how nice it will turn out to be! GL!
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TTCSteve
a year ago
Hi EF, it's all looking good so far...in terms of wave counts I have it as in the beginning of wave iii of 1 of C of IV. I have the wave A, of this larger IV targeting 78-80 area, as the Sept low to Oct high in 3 waves...the B this recent bottom on the 10th and the i,ii and now in iii of 1 of C. 73.30-50 area is also a potential neckline and a breakout with standard H&S measures targets above 78 which would also be the 161.8% of wave a. The previous wave iv supplies resistance in the 80-82 range and has the 238.2% levels etc. For the wave iii to hold water it would be best to see 71.30 area with critical support at 71.00 holding.

Looks like we have a number of similar levels, my charts are up on twitter at my handle if you're interested. Enjoy and thanks for your efforts as always.
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EverythingForex PRO TTCSteve
a year ago
Yeah, I have it targeting around the 80 cents level as well on a long term basis. But I will deal with this uptrend as it goes. 80 cents at first blush does seem rather optimistic though. This up move should take a while and just keeping in mind that the Feds may very well raise rates next month, I don't want to look so far ahead so soon. But good to know that you agree with me generally.
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jhakas
a year ago
@ EverythingForex... After every FOMC.. if currencies rise then the next day they retrace good.. sometimes even to 80%.. now currencies took rise in Asian session.. which mostly reverse in EU and London session.. so my question is how deep retracement of aud you are looking?
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EverythingForex PRO jhakas
a year ago
I think I answered that above. Wave 2's can retrace 100% of wave 1's. But I will look for the retrace to target a retest of the broken upper TL of the previous expanding triangle. That would be about a 38.2% retrace so it would be shallow if it does that. And if it will be a shallow retrace, the next move up will be explosive.
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jhakas EverythingForex
a year ago
thanks for your answer! currencies are deep down especially aud and eu... so if there will be really rate hike next month... then very likely market will take currencies high up and then smash down... so i am expecting retracement in currencies will be deep upside... but lets see market has its own view :)
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EverythingForex PRO jhakas
a year ago
FOMC meeting is another month away. So there is a month of activity for prices to rise against the dollar. What happens when the rate hike is actually announced is not written in stone that market will drop. Personally, I don't think it will have a dramatic effect because of "rumor fatigue". This rate hike has been talked about and talked about so much and is already expected that the market will probably have already priced in the hike. So the effect should be muted. But we'll see. For now, I'm only concerned about the present.
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jhakas EverythingForex
a year ago
I must agree with you.. as no one knows exactly the effect of hike.. maybe old lads know :) that trading from more than 20 years.. as in my trading life I never saw hike from US..
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Rayge
a year ago
hello, how do you think gbpusd now?
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Barabaszek
a year ago
TP1 has been achieved.
Potential upward movement

Waiting for more.Swap is in plus :-) ,so I'm very patient.
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Spectacular.
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EverythingForex PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Thanks, man.
+1 Reply
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