4xForecaster

Potential Wolfe Pattern; Bearish Targets | $AUD $USD #RBA #FED

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar/U.S. Dollar
213 3 0
Friends,

Price action in the AUDUSD             has drawn out a potential Wolfe Waves pattern completion at Point-5, which by definition would represent a counter-trend level of engagement, as the Wolfe Waves pattern trader would take entry and seek price falling back and touch the 1-4 Target Line.

While this pattern may be elusive, and price may not necessarily submit to its perfect geometric             completion, there are certain technical events of late that are worth considering as we seek to ascertain the relevance of Point-5.

First, at that level, Point-5 would achieve a significant 0.614-Fib retracement from its current relief rally. This is not insignificant, since that rally point is often defined as a counter-trend entry by that breed of traders seeking to enter at the moment when market-wide expectation remains long in this case.

Second, the market geometrist might see a completion of a second lower right shoulder against the background of a broader, redundant 2-shoulder Head & Shoulder pattern. Interestingly, translation of the neck-to-head line down to the base of the neck (which is classically done to seek a symmetrical point of exit) comes near to our proprietary predicitve and forecasting strategic system

Third, our own proprietary system has produced weak, albeit early bearish reversal signals as an pattern-independent as well as price-independent system. While there are intermediate patterns of higher probability defined by our system, we are laying down the least probable pattern, namely "TG-Low = 0.86948 - 05 MAR 2014" so as to defined the probable range of price action we anticipate to witness over the coming week(s), given the 4-hour nature of the chart horizon line, as well as the depth of anticipated price action.


OVERALL:

Layered standard and advanced market geometries, combined with proprietary predictive and forecasting strategies call our attention to a precise price level relative to the Wolfe Waves pattern, where a reversal might occur. While the strength of a price-independent signal remains weak, we caution the trader that this opportunity would require that you do your own due diligence and cross-reference with your own methodology, as a way to layer another line of reasoning atop ours.

We will express a reinforced opinion or a contrary one, based on the development of price as well as the system signal. So, more on this through our Twitter feeds - Feel free to follow under the same alias: @4xForecaster.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting


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Get signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
KevinT
2 years ago
In case of a bearish wolf wave, usually, the price channel should be ascending.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
@KevinT - Very true. This one might behave more like a 3-Drives pattern - David
Reply
Well, this one was completely wrong, wasn't it? The technicals were skewed and as another trader (@KevinT) correctly pointed out, the Wolfe Waves pattern was not shaped in its defined was. I replied that possibly a 3-Drives pattern was underway, but here too, I was wrong.

Yet, all this time, the price-independent predictive and forecasting system I use to provide me with the reversal signals, trend and targets had remained weak since the beginning, which really should be a reminder to me and any other system-dependent trader, that you have to stick to what has worked before. That system has rarely been wrong (see current euro calls for instance at the time when market-wide expectation was 180-degree contrary to the bullish targets. In fact, we hit the first one.

Here, instead, there is a potential for a reversal nearing at 0.91274.

That target is based on a weak system signal, combined with a bearish Shark pattern in the background (not shown). So, plan here is:

1 - IF: 0.91274 value is hit

AND

2 - Signal shows reversal

THEN

3 - Go short aiming for the 50% value of the recent bullish impulse.

Above conditions are based on a 5-0 pattern, thus defining 0.88936 as a potential target. If you pay close attention, this target nears Point-A of the Shark (remember that Shark first point is not X, but "zero"), and lines up well with a most recent support level before price continued its bullish rage.

Hope this all makes sense.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting


-----------------------------------------------------
Get signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter
Alias: @4xForecaster
-----------------------------------------------------


Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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