FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
818 5 18
My last update on this pair prior to the NFP (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE#3: QUICK ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Mapping The Retrace"), I noted that the wave (b) point could change and if it did, I would need to redraw the patterns. Well, during the craziness that is the NFP, that wave (b) did change. It went EXACTLY to where I suggested it could go prior to the NFP moving that (b) point! Coincidence that I had put it there prior to the NFP? Hmmmmm.......

Well anyway, I have now redrawn the patterns and most everything in that last post still applies. Except I also removed the AB=CD pattern because that no longer is valid. I'm still LONG on this pair and the NFP did nothig to change that. I'm still looking for a good opportunity to add to my LONGS.

If you need to be reminded of what I said in that last post, go take a look.....
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after it has changed poin (b) post NFP, will the candle go down following the butterfly (down) structure ? in other words, is it going to form poin (c) ? thank you for your sharing
I can't tell you definitely it will. Anything can happen. No one can tell you what the market will do. I can only read the chart and guess what it will do. according to my chart, it SHOULD go down and form point (c) but that is assuming my wave count is correct. It might not be correct. Only time will tell.
Hi EF - appreciate your extensive analysis and willingness to share more openly. Let's hope karma rewards you for your sharing. My question is really only a follow up, in that do you consider this "update" still fits within the confines of the original analysis with a TP of around 73c. That's what I'm looking at - maybe a bit less - depending on nerves
+1 Reply
If you are referring to my LONG analysis on this pair, then yes, this SHORT trade fits within the confines of that LONG trade. In this SHORT analysis, I am only trying to identify a good opportunity to add more LONG positions. I am not selling any SHORT positions here. But It's also valid for anyone who is wanting to sell shorts as well. Though I wouldn't recommend it since I'm very bullish on this pair and the main uptrend can resume anytime and does not need to follow my analysis.

Also, when you refer to "nerves", I then must ask anyone who is "nervous" about a trade you are taking or are in....why? If you are trading with a proper and solid trading plan and sound money management with proper risk tolerance, there is no reason to be "nervous". I know money is so very personal to people and losing money hurts but if you are trading properly and NOT using money you can't afford to lose, then losing should not "hurt" your bank account but maybe only personal pride. And even then, traders need to learn that winning or losing is NOT about your ego anyway. Can never be so invested emotionally in any trade so that losing hurts your pride. Should never trade emotionally. So there isn't any reason to be "nervous". You either will win or lose pips. If win, then great. Move on. If lose, then it should be "no big deal". Move on. That's the proper attitude. That's my attitude.
+1 Reply
mr_d4 EverythingForex
Hi EF - and thanks for taking the time to respond. When I say "nerves", I mean that I rarely meet my TP and take earliar profits than would otherwise be available. So for this LONG, 73 is gonna be hard. But hey, no-one ever went broke taking a profit.
Thanks again
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