Looking for shorts at 0.7388...

FX:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
130 0 2
Weekly gain/loss: + 182 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.7361
Weekly opening price: 0.7363

Weekly view: The past week saw the commodity currency sharply rebound from demand coming in at 0.7108-0.7186, which not only placed price within the jaws of supply at 0.7438-0.7315, but also erased three weeks’ worth of losses! In the event that the bulls continue to drive higher this week, despite being positioned within supply, all eyes will be on neighboring resistance drawn from 0.7604.

Daily view: In a similar fashion to the weekly chart, we can also see that daily price is currently trading from supply drawn from 0.7402-0.7360 (surrounds a resistance line penciled in at 0.7380). If this area caves in, there’s not much stopping price from gravitating towards supply seen at 0.7517-0.7451 (sits directly above the aforementioned weekly supply). Supposing that the bears defend this zone this week, we’ll then expect the Aussie to shake hands with support chiseled in at 0.7226.

H4 view: Following Friday’s heavy push to the upside on the back of weak U.S. employment data, price is now seen flirting with the extremes of a supply zone given at 0.7367-0.7336. In light of a stable beginning to the week, offers appear to be drying up around the current supply area, which may force this market to test the Quasimodo resistance line at 0.7390 (bolstered by a 0.74 handle and 38.2% Fib resistance line at 0.7405).

Our suggestions: Seeing as how weekly action is trading from weekly supply at 0.7438-0.7315, as well as daily price also touching gloves with a daily supply base at 0.7402-0.7360, our attention will mostly be driven towards shorts today/this week. Personally, we have zero interest in shorting from the current H4 supply area. Not only is this the second time this zone has been visited but price also recently spiked above the barrier, likely hitting a pocket of stops.

Therefore, we feel the H4 Quasimodo resistance line at 0.7390 and its converging structures (see above) is a sound base to permit a pending sell order. We have set an order to sell at 0.7388 and placed our stop just above the 38.2% H4 Fib level at 0.7407. The first target will, should the order fill, be around the 0.7350 region

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7388 Pending order (Stop loss: 0.7407).
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