Elliottician
Long

Neutral on AUS200

FX:AUS200   S&P/ASX Index
49 0 0
The long and choppy wave 2 could justify the 0.236 retracement for the position of wave 4. Nevertheless, the bull market in the long term for Australia is not yet over in my personal opinion.

Cases for the bull market:

1) Wave 1 equals wave 3. This can take 3 possibilities.
Firstly, wave 1 and 3 are just wave A and C of a major wave 1, which suggests we may see a correction of wave 2 and a further bull market.
Secondly, when wave 1 and 3 are equal, according to wave rules, we can expect an extended wave 5. Since prices broke about wave 3, there is no justification that the waves 1 and 3 were merely A and C corrections.
Thirdly, if we want to label wave 4 as an 'A' and the latest high of 6015 as 'B', something doesn't quite add up since wave C doesn't usually move 200% of wave A. Even if we do take it as a possibility, the target for wave C would be around 5132. That price region also coincides with a major 0.382 fibonacci level from wave 2.

Final Conclusion: The correction may only last for a short while. Be prepared to take long positions as and when opportunity presents itself.

Trade well.
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