Bitcoin ABC (Bitcoin Cash) fundamental analysis.

Dear colleagues and followers,

We at Osiris Finance happily resume or regular posting schedule after the Bitcoin Cash hard fork. The Osiris team remains constantly improving predictive and trading algorithms to deliver the best results achievable. We are using the bearish trend of the recent days as a wonderful opportunity to stress-test our systems and to make them less susceptible to statistical outliers.

Bitcoin price extended declines and traded to new lows below $4,550 against the US Dollar . BTC /USD is currently under pressure below $5,000 and the decrease in Bitcoin Hash Rate could ignite more losses. The chart indicates that the price dropped heavily below the $5,060 and $4,860 support levels. It even declined below the $4,550 support and traded to a new multi-month low around the $4,400 level. The RSI has reached the 10 level, suggesting that the price is facing a solid selling interest below $4,860. However, there are chances of a short-term bounce from the recent low of $4,407. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $5,751 high to $4,407 low. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance at $4,700 on the same chart to act as a barrier for buyers. (Source: https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-analy...)

According to the recent news, two separate crypto exchanges, Huobi and Kraken, have independently decided to list Bitcoin ABC coins as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) on their exchanges. In the same announcement Kraken also warned that, despite listing Bitcoin SV as well (by the ticker BSV ), the exchange ultimately regards it as a high-risk investment as it does not meet usual listing requirements (Source: https://ethereumworldnews.com/kraken-and...). Coin.dance platform has also formally announced that Bitcoin ABC has won the “has war” (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/).

The Indian government is actively preparing a draft bill on crypto regulation, which is expected to see light this December, according to documents obtained by digital news website Quartz India Tuesday, Nov. 20. The government has filed a counter-affidavit yesterday, Nov. 19 in the Supreme Court of India, which is currently hearing a case filed by several crypto exchanges against the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The document states that the Indian finance ministry panel, responsible for the draft and headed by secretary in the department of economic affairs Subhash Chandra Garg, will present its first version in December. Quartz India reports that the draft report and bill will be sent out to members of the inter-ministerial committee ( IMC ), and that the next meeting of the IMC will specifically discuss the draft legislation. The documents notes that it is expected that the draft report will be placed before the IMC by next month. (Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/indian-go...)

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange OKEx hit back at accusations it “manipulated markets” by adjusting Bitcoin Cash (BCH) futures settlements in a fresh statement Nov. 20 sent to Cointelegraph. The exchange, which opted to deliver BCH futures early due to the coin’s contentious hard fork Nov. 15, subsequently saw a barrage of negative publicity over the decision, pundits complaining it had overstepped its remit in freely deciding when and how futures contracts would be settled. In particular, a Medium user AMBER AI accused OKEx of “outright market manipulation and one of the more serious acts of fraud in the history of limit order book trading in the cryptocurrency markets”. Published Nov. 19, the post provides a lengthy analysis of the futures settlement and further alleges OKEx contradicted its own small print several times during the process. It is argued traders have lost $24 million due to the move. Responding, the OKEx exchange sent a circular to users in which it said the futures settlement change was “based on the consideration of market integrity and customer interests”. OKEx added it would consider legal action against AMBER AI for “interfering” in its operations. (Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/okex-rebu...)

Due to the high volatility on the market and high uncertainty surrounding most of the coins, the Osiris Team does not recommend to trade with short-term investment horizons. As mentioned previously, the Osiris team is currently holding Bitcoin ABC ( BAB on Bitfinex, BCH on Huobi and Kraken) guided primarily by fundamental analysis . The comparative performance of BAB is promising, BAB being the only coin among the top-20 staying in the green. As can be seen from the chart, BAB is also the only coin trading above its 4:30 UTC levels before the overall market dump.

Currently, Bitcoin ABC can be undoubtedly called the winner of the “hash war”, controlling over 60% of the hash rate, being 46 blocks ahead and 54.3% ahead on proof of work (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/). The mining of Bitcoin ABC has also become more diversified, including ViaBTC , AntPool and BTC .TOP pools. Recent block statistics (fees, sizes and outputs, source: https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/bloc...) shows that at least these three pools are not “selfless”, mining solely for the promotion of the chain, but rather self-interested miners, implying that their activities are sustainable, which is crucial given overall concerns of loss generation over Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV mining.

Overall, the Osiris Team remains bullish on Bitcoin ABC . There is no firm selling target as upward coin movement is bounded not by technical or liquidity factors but rather by sentiment. As we believe negative sentiment over Bitcoin ABC is to vanish (which indeed is slowly happening), we will sell when we see signals of long-term price stabilisation at higher levels (probably over 340-350 USD) and resume short-term trading. Despite the fact fundamentally justified price for Bitcoin ABC is around 430 USD, given the overall bearish sentiment around crypto and significant selling pressure around 360 USD, where most of the sell orders are concentrated and where historical highs have previously formed (see chart), these assessments (~430 selling target) now seem slightly optimistic.

Thank you for staying in touch and good luck in your today’s trades. We are looking forward to your feedback and any suggestions here at TradingView.


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