This is purely based on machine learning - but the mental model also triangulates nicely. The dip of the spread is at a 16 year low, BASF has strong fundamentals with a 5% dividend, exposure to agriculture and chemicals and there are strong components of value investing in this leg of the trade. SAP is loosing share in the cloud battle, has a much higher cost structure than competition and is pricey by all metrics. Also - FANG stocks going a bit out of fashion and cyclicals gaining ground ...