ssholtskog

BGBIO - an intelligent bet on covid

Long
OSL:BGBIO   BERGENBIO ASA
BGBIO is a biotech company with focus on cancer treatment.
Like most biotech it is extremely volatile for news, but often fluctuate between key buy and sell zones when no news are evident.

BGBIO is presenting news on their cancer treatment 25th of june.
They are currently first in line to do a free test in ACCORD - the British rushed testing setup for COVID-19

Before news I expect the share to keep bouncing back and forth between the buy zone (established from a large public offering at 37,5 - 50 MUSD) to the sell zone (as seen on TA). BLUE ARROWS
Any movements outside this zone is unlikely before we get more news.

If we do get positive news as to treatment going well, the share could very quickly get an insane pricing (2-3x current price). However, as we have seen from a lot of other companies lately, just starting or finishing test phases without failing = price increase.
I expect such a movement sometime the next two weeks. The CEO has indicated he will let the market know asap when the study starts and I expect that announcement to quickly bounce the price to ~50 NOK before it retraces to the current sell zone. When this happens it will turn into the new buy zone.

1) Go long with a position, you can collect a probable 25% at 50 NOK within 2-4 weeks
2) Play the swing trade between 37-39 and 42-44 with some of your position in the meantime

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3) If for some reason the first phase should not go as planned and their drug will not be suitable for covid, the drug is still very well touted for cancer and has the next potential boost at june 25th

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