Xetsu
Long

Bitcoin shaping up a bit, although still to early to tell

HUOBI:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
56 0 0
After the massive speculative rally on a new exchange opening (buts its coinbase! omg             its backedby NYSE!) bitcoin collapsed backdown to 220 area where it has been marinating preparing for the next move.

I recently noticed we had a small breakout above a declining trend line on 1h, that was then followed by a restest of the trendline and a higher low. This sort of behavior is usually bullish , as it indicates people are no longer that scared of missing out on a good price to sell.

What is missing i a key ingredient: Volume . Volume laos has a declining trendline the last few days, thus an uptick in volume , and it associated direction, will probably signal where the next massive move is.

Reason for long: Bitcoin had a complete capitulation. I tought the 470 to 290 could have been the capitulation, but this 320 to 160 move in 2 weeks after already being oversold for months now really hit it out of the park. At this rate the only guys who are still long are probably the die hard perma bulls and any sort of move down will probably require a lot more consolidation before it can scare of more whales.

we collpased around 25%+ from 310~ highs of coinbase news. in just 3-4 days. could see mean reversion to 1560 area. We also havent had a meanigful bounce, except for potentially the 1370 to 1500 one.

Overall I think risk reward favors long with a 2% risk to 8% gain (slightly below breakdown area) or even 10% to slightly above breakdown area if bull get trapped, which happens often in bitcoin .

A longer term bullish pattern will take weeks to develop, if it develops at all, so I wouldnt count on this being any more than a short term move.
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