Unfortunately markets show 6% futures premium and extreme bullish sentiment. Rally ends on a euphoric spike as we approach previous highs. Very similar to the $1000 price point during the $1200 bubble.
Dump fractals suggest 2200 bottom with 1900 capitulation. As such I suggest target should be 2292.
Of course, stop loss should this idea be proven false. At 3022. But I'm rarely wrong. I'm a genius after all.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Price ended up following the pattern and I did end up shorting this. Took some losses from the too-tight stop though.
Premiums can be higher now that we are in a bull market. Premiums reached a cap in 2015 previously based on bearish sentiment. I think we've formed a cup and part of a handle, we should see a new 2015 high within two weeks, ~4000CNY.