Breaking out the longterm down trend?

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In addition to my last chart I found it interesting to chart BTCCNY/USDCNH to rule out the possibility that the strength/weakness of the Chinese Yuan would interfere with the chart.
We can see on this chart the last low of the bitcoin price came VERY near the longterm up channel . We didn't break out the longterm down channel (yet), so I expect the price to go down a bit before testing the longterm up or longterm down channel again.
I don't however see us make a new low again. The reaction after touching the longterm up trend makes me believe we have a greater chance breaking the downterm trend instead of the longterm up trend.

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