History repeating itself? (Maybe a third time?)

I noticed a trendline is being formed in this recent BTC rally and apparently it always pullbacks on it at 0.786 fib line of the previous surge. Then the next surge reaches the 1.618 fib line. Rinse, repeat.

If this is to happen a third time, I expect a pullback to 5420 and another rally to 5700+.
I can even tell you the exact time when the rally will begin: 00:00 UTC .

Too good to be true, right?

This is not a serious analysis, just spotted a repeating pattern and wanted to display the outcome if it were to repeat itself a third time.

Also it gives me the chance to tell you "I told you so".


Well you got your pullback! nice chart.
OkCoin went down to 5366 so a bit lower then you expected but right on. Now let's see if it goes up
esuvari bingbongfly
@bingbongfly, actually that was a crazy wick, both upside and downside.

Interesting to see that the downside tagged 0.5 fib. (It happened during the first surge as well, check out the first chart)

But upside (and the following dump) was a shakeout imho, not a healthy movement. On low volume too.

So I'll ignore that. I still expect this to consolidate for a few more hours (7-8 hours) and bounce when it hits the trendline.

Thanks for the comment!
@esuvari, Great chart Esuvari.

Could you update us please as the 7 to 8 hours period you've mentioned has passed and we are at 5385 at Huobi/5376 at OKcoin.

Thank you.
esuvari UnknownUnicorn396945
@UnknownUnicorn396945, hey, thanks for the comment!
Apparently the short term uptrend line is broken so history didn't repeat itself, it would've been a stretch anyway.
Personally I'm still bullish middle term but for now expect a deeper correction or at least a retest of 5350 at this point. (it's close to 5400 now)
Could be a nice scalping opportunity for the weekend.
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