Quick application of wychoff model to our current bitcoin price action.. we are ether in a correction phase or a breakdown. I'm inclined to believe correction at this current point.
correction vs mark down
a mark down requires a failed rally attempt. a rally is defined by a breakout of a local top on high volume buying that is unable to reclaim a high. this is just not what occurred here...a higher low made a day after the ATH was put it in and selling just kind amplified as it went.
a correction in a bullish market is a result of lower and sell off that goes around ~20% down. - this more closely resembles the market as we see it right now.
if this is the markdown phase somewhere in the neighborhood of 3480 is the measured spot for discount re accumulation.
i believe having a major USD exchange offline speed up the timetable on this by quite a bit.. it wouldnt have been ~100 dollar daily candle under normal circumstances.
other notes:
sell off stopped exactly on the s2 of the weekly pivot, s4 of the daily pivot and directly on a reasonable trendline from teh last accumulation point . i dont believe in coincidences in markets.
(i dont use trendline much because of curve fitting potential)
I use stoch in all my trading regardless of market. This last push down behaved like 1D stoch always does right before it bottoms out.. A breach of 20 occurs, a last push down attempt happen
If you use stoch in your trading , the current position tell you not to short but to wait for a good reentry.
disclaimers:
i dont usually chart china. im aware that the volume is fake however since finex had an 16 hour outage - this is the best data we have to work with. I have purposely excluded the sharp uptrend in positive volume in OBV on the lower time frames due to this.
Trade active:
looks like target was hit.. let see how well this works.
if this was a correction we should see a higher level accumulation attempt.
if this is actually wychoff break down, it will try to make another low after this lower high
looks like target was hit.. let see how well this works.
if this was a correction we should see a higher level accumulation attempt.
if this is actually wychoff break down, it will try to make another low after this lower high
Comment:
IMHO this is still in play price hit my re accumulation point pretty much exactly and now were ~100 dollars higher. A break of that line of bitfinex fucking up again might cause this to fail
Comment:
we are up $80.00 from last comment, chart still working. if price stays above 3900, i would expect 4280 to be next.. At this point i would the correction phase of the model is potentially complete and we are in the re accumulation phase, which allows for price jumps that are controlled
Comment:
still in play . yesterday had a wick that test the bottom of the previous order block. its pretty common in china. see 6/23 or 8/2 of other examples of the behavior.
Comment:
this is working well. broke out . next major resistance is 4600 - 4620
Comment:
to update this chart.. after 3 months of continued uptrend, we have a throw back in fast forward and now trend seems to resuming. resistance at 720 and 745
Comment:
update.. 5120 support tested out and it look like it may continue up. if a significant rally occurs i would count that as the (begining) of the markup phase.
Comment:
china is currently ~325 yuan above the last mark up level. Looking at the classic model, we are still in the accumulation/breakout level. there have been several throw back attempt in this level but the market isnt having it right now. that to me is a pretty good sign for continuation.
still in play so far, bounce off a logical point. lets see what happens.