Shorting from 1700 CNY area gives a 4:1 risk/reward ratio to 1300 CNY area with a stop loss if channes breaks above 1800 CNY are. So that's a massive profit and a very likely scenario while bitcoin looks very weak.
Bitcoin Fundamentals remain in bad situation, plus was recently hacked. That means less fiat incoming from new adopters for a while, plus really bad press for bitcoin .
It is now being published in all mass media as the "Worst Currency Performance in 2014" so it won't help either.
Finally Litecoin is crashing at the moment, making lower lows. That means some of litecoiners cashing out to bitcoin and then to fiat.
A major exchange got hacked, bitcoin fundamentals looks really bad, downtrend RSI daily is playing out and we are at resistance level, and finally there is a lot of resistance in the 1800 CNY level.
There are no other big supports below 1500 CNY, only 1300's CNY. If dump below 1500CNY happens I expect a lot of panic momentum, so it will be hard to stop easily.
Of course I always like to watchout in case momentum don't kicks after the break, but that would be strange, as investors who felt safe for 1 year that bought below $250 would be now a big risk.
I could be wrong, but seems a good risk/reward for me :)
Thanks for your opinion!
Price is not going to go completely directly to that place, this is a multi day/week position that only need more than 20% success.
So it always depends with timeframe you are using.
For example, a 5 minute chart trader would have even a lot more stops than 266, 250 and 225. And he would be right, because he is trading different timeframe.