Xetsu

Massive Penant developing in Bitcoin

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
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Bitcoin             has been rather boring the past few weeks after having a tremendous move in early November. I'm not quiet sure why the move happened, but regardless volatility and volume surged to unprecedented levels. Since then there has been a lot of chop with some occasional good trading here and there, notably during the rebound on November 23rd.

The 2300 area has proven to be very strong resistant many times in the past, but what is really interesting is how bitcoin             continues to dance around it. In the meantime a huge penant has developed as the price continues to consolidate around this area, suggesting that the next move bitcoin             makes will be energy packed and definitely worth betting on. As always during time of low volatility , where big volumes appears first will dictate future moves.

Technical insights:
huge pennant developing.
relatively low trading volumes compared to recent times.
Trading volume remains elevated relative to longer time frames.
Long term trend remains somewhat bearish as bitcoin             below 200dma.
mid term trend remains neutral as bitcoin             above 50dma.
short term trend neutral as bitcoin             continues to oscillate around 2300

Fundamental:
No real fundamental news.
Bitcoin             start ups and infrastructure continue to expand
Bitcoin             still has no clear direction: none particularly knows why they are buying bitcoin             unless it is in hopes of getting rich or to transact with services they normally couldn't
transactions reach all time high while difficulty finally stalls. lower difficulty means miners might presumably be able to pay of expenses selling less bitcoins             . Whether or not miners will continue to sell all their bitcoins             as they are produced or possibly speculate with some on the side remains to be seen.

highly speculative:
Shagnhai stock market has been setting up for a huge rally..might that diverge some funds away from chinese bitcoins             into stock market.
Russian local bitcoin             sales continue to surge. My thoughts are the majority are probably selling for US dollars, and possibly even keeping the dollars on an exchange to fight of rising inflation and falling exchange rates and protect their wealth.

Overall I have no real bias. If I had to really really pick I'd choose to be long because I think bit coin has been selling off for quite a long time now and might see some mean reversion. Regardless I am standing still until I see some direction, and more importantly volume , out of this massive pennant .
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