4hr double bottom leads to first long position in a while
Hello all,
it has been a while since I have been thinking of being long Bitcoin but recent fundamental and technical events have pushed me to the point of at least sticking my proverbial toe in the water.
From the fundamental perspective, the latest Chinese Bitcoin ban seems to have changed the crypto-currency's complexion. The removal of Chinese speculative 'hot' money has also removed a good deal of price volatility as well. Couple this with greater scrutiny from regulators around the world (regarding its use by nefarious criminal organizations) and BTC seems to me to becoming more 'legitimate' with every passing day. Recent released Fed meeting minutes suggest US regulators are less concerned about BTC replacing Fiat and more concerned about consumer protection (a la Silk Road and Mt. Gox). This in my mind solidifies BTC's future and steps taken of late to removed undesirable characteristics of the crypto-currency only reinforce my believe. BTC is here to stay BUT it will only be through regulation and greater scrutiny that corporate America (and Wall Street for that matter) will latch on. Since they are very interested, it really isn't a question of 'if' but more like a question of 'when' that scrutiny will come - and of course, in what form.....
From the technical perspective, as mentioned above, the removal of Chinese 'hot' spec money took a lot of volatility out of BTC. Indeed, once that event occurred it was literally like someone turned off the garden hose - there just simply were no more sellers. Over the past week price itself has carved out an hourly 'double bottom' within a larger 4hr 'double bottom' which in itself is quite bullish. On top of that, since the beginning of May, price has carved out an inverted head and shoulders price pattern too. If that pattern is correct, price is likely to visit the $500 area.
So putting both the developing fundamental backdrop together with recent price action and I can justify starting to re-enter the long side on BTC. I was fortunate to liquidate my total holdings above $500 so I am going to take that capital and start accumulating positions. I allocated 1/4 of my capital here on this purchase and will risk a grand total of $10 on the position (wow, big spender). I will use further 'buy' signals to add to the position (on lower time frame setups). Ideally, I would like to be 100% long but it seems that stance may take some time to get to. Should we break below 419.40 I will exit this position but lets hope that the worst is behind us for now and we have bottomed.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
If my charts help you, or you use my indicators...
please consider a BTC donation to allow me to
continue my work :
1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5
& follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor
it has been a while since I have been thinking of being long Bitcoin but recent fundamental and technical events have pushed me to the point of at least sticking my proverbial toe in the water.
From the fundamental perspective, the latest Chinese Bitcoin ban seems to have changed the crypto-currency's complexion. The removal of Chinese speculative 'hot' money has also removed a good deal of price volatility as well. Couple this with greater scrutiny from regulators around the world (regarding its use by nefarious criminal organizations) and BTC seems to me to becoming more 'legitimate' with every passing day. Recent released Fed meeting minutes suggest US regulators are less concerned about BTC replacing Fiat and more concerned about consumer protection (a la Silk Road and Mt. Gox). This in my mind solidifies BTC's future and steps taken of late to removed undesirable characteristics of the crypto-currency only reinforce my believe. BTC is here to stay BUT it will only be through regulation and greater scrutiny that corporate America (and Wall Street for that matter) will latch on. Since they are very interested, it really isn't a question of 'if' but more like a question of 'when' that scrutiny will come - and of course, in what form.....
From the technical perspective, as mentioned above, the removal of Chinese 'hot' spec money took a lot of volatility out of BTC. Indeed, once that event occurred it was literally like someone turned off the garden hose - there just simply were no more sellers. Over the past week price itself has carved out an hourly 'double bottom' within a larger 4hr 'double bottom' which in itself is quite bullish. On top of that, since the beginning of May, price has carved out an inverted head and shoulders price pattern too. If that pattern is correct, price is likely to visit the $500 area.
So putting both the developing fundamental backdrop together with recent price action and I can justify starting to re-enter the long side on BTC. I was fortunate to liquidate my total holdings above $500 so I am going to take that capital and start accumulating positions. I allocated 1/4 of my capital here on this purchase and will risk a grand total of $10 on the position (wow, big spender). I will use further 'buy' signals to add to the position (on lower time frame setups). Ideally, I would like to be 100% long but it seems that stance may take some time to get to. Should we break below 419.40 I will exit this position but lets hope that the worst is behind us for now and we have bottomed.
Cheers all and I hope my simple analysis is of benefit...
If my charts help you, or you use my indicators...
please consider a BTC donation to allow me to
continue my work :
1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5
& follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor