This is a long-term analysis of Bitcoin starting from 2013 ATH.
To understand this chart you need to understand the color scheme:
cyan vertical and horizontal lines - identify the tops of each cycle
red vertical and horizontal lines - identify the bottoms of each cycle
white vertical and horizontal lines - identify the halvings
As you can clearly see in this chart there is a clear behavioral pattern for Bitcoin which is:
1 - Each cycle bottom is around 54 weeks of the previous ATH
2 - Each cycle bottom happens around 74 weeks before the following Bitcoin halving
3 - Each cycle top is around 74 weeks after the previous Bitcoin halving
Considering the information above and the average time between each cycle's halving and the new ATH we can expect this cycle's top to occur somewhere around September 2025
Now about Bitcoin price: Considering we started around $2 in October 2011 to around 1000 in November 2013 and bottomed around March 2015 and from this bottom to 2017 ATH and from 2018 bottom to 2021 ATH we had an average percentage return of around 20% of the previous cycle:
From $2 to $1161 we had a return of 51000% (510X)
Then we went from around $150 to $19000 or 12511% (125X)
From 2018 bottom to 2021 we went from $3180 to $69000 or 2109% (21X).
From 2022 bottom to 2025 ATH we can have a return of around 5x from this cycle's bottom.
We can also notice that each cycle's support has been the previous cycle's ATH and if you check the weekly chart BTC was respecting 2017 ATH as support until FTX's Blackswan event.
Showing 2017 ATH support until FTX event in November 2022 - in this image, the cyan horizontal line is the 2017 ATH and we broke support in the first week of November 2022
To understand this chart you need to understand the color scheme:
cyan vertical and horizontal lines - identify the tops of each cycle
red vertical and horizontal lines - identify the bottoms of each cycle
white vertical and horizontal lines - identify the halvings
As you can clearly see in this chart there is a clear behavioral pattern for Bitcoin which is:
1 - Each cycle bottom is around 54 weeks of the previous ATH
2 - Each cycle bottom happens around 74 weeks before the following Bitcoin halving
3 - Each cycle top is around 74 weeks after the previous Bitcoin halving
Considering the information above and the average time between each cycle's halving and the new ATH we can expect this cycle's top to occur somewhere around September 2025
Now about Bitcoin price: Considering we started around $2 in October 2011 to around 1000 in November 2013 and bottomed around March 2015 and from this bottom to 2017 ATH and from 2018 bottom to 2021 ATH we had an average percentage return of around 20% of the previous cycle:
From $2 to $1161 we had a return of 51000% (510X)
Then we went from around $150 to $19000 or 12511% (125X)
From 2018 bottom to 2021 we went from $3180 to $69000 or 2109% (21X).
From 2022 bottom to 2025 ATH we can have a return of around 5x from this cycle's bottom.
We can also notice that each cycle's support has been the previous cycle's ATH and if you check the weekly chart BTC was respecting 2017 ATH as support until FTX's Blackswan event.
Showing 2017 ATH support until FTX event in November 2022 - in this image, the cyan horizontal line is the 2017 ATH and we broke support in the first week of November 2022
Comment:
This 10-year trendline on the weekly chart shows the Gaussian channel is still green, which means Bitcoin is in a good buying zone, however, if we are really mimicking the 2014/15 fractal this means we can stay below the trendline for one more year and the moment we break it, Bitcoin price could be at the around $100K and entering the final phase of the bull.
Comment:
For the first time since 2016, Bitcoin is printing a green monthly candle in September (center of the circles in the chart)
Comment:
As you can see in this update Bitcoin tested and got rejected from the white trendline that is today holding resistance.
Once it breaks the line and holds support on it I am 100% sure the bull run is confirmed.
Once it breaks the line and holds support on it I am 100% sure the bull run is confirmed.
Comment:
10 year Bitcoin trendline - getting close to rest resistance here
Cyan vertical and horizontal lines mark cycle tops, and, according to this chart, if and only if, Bitcoin respects the 10-year trendline we can expect a new cycle top around $160K