VWAP McStinkypants

Charting Herd Mentality and Investor Psychology.

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I originally posted this EW count and subsequent psychological chart on 12/6 and I've been posting them with little to no updates other than the sub wave counts. Enough people have asked for it that I thought I'd publish again. First, it's important to note that I'm analyzing from a completely neutral standpoint. I don't care if BTC             goes to $1mm or $1. I'm simply observing/ charting psychological behavior.

The main take away from this chart is the irrationally euphoric parabolic rise and subsequent "fall from grace". This momo pattern can be seen in so many 2000 tech stocks and more recently AAPL             or TSLA             . Once momentum is broken, the initial retreat is fast and hard followed by the "it's too cheap" bounce (momo is trying to regain) unfortunately the psychological trend has long since been broken and what is left are the corrective waves down. (the underlying security is left to it's own merits and not driven by easy money).

I'm amazed at how closely the market followed the freehand wave count (orange wave down) I drew on 12/6. It'll be interesting to watch over the coming months.

Again, I have no vested interested in the success or failure of BTC             but I believe it will not have a future until it's regulated and the wild fluctuations are neutralized. Businesses will not adopt a currency that could potentially squeeze margins or cause losses from recently sold product. Once regulations and taxation come into play, BTC             will either "die on the vine" or "shoot the moon". (see the end of wave 5 down :)
Comment: UPDATE: 6/1/2017

DESPITE countless comments and msgs saying I don't know what I'm talking about, it's different this time, but you don't understand China....blah blah blah.
the theory of investor psychology is confirmed yet again.

What to look for now? Fractals...

Markets are ALWAYS cyclical! Patterns ( investor psychology/ emotional response) always repeat. Notice how the run up to the recent high mimics the run up to the original $1500 high a few years ago. It's the SAME emotions...
very nice. An example that is further along is the 3D printing stocks like DDD with potential buying opportunity.
snapshot
Reply
beautiful :) i love how you put in the effort to describe every emotion, yet with the railings of the mean as the final endpoint. this full pattern exists in all the hot once-parabolic stuff including gold...etc.
Reply
*Reads Prechter once*
Reply
Just a few weeks ago I had a similar idea to draw the classic bubble patterns into a chart, but then I got bullish again. A Mistake.
Reply
It's always nice to be reminded of common themes in price action and I say to your chart Maybe... but you could have made the same chart during the last bubble, but it never went below 60 again and it held. Also at this point is undeniable that bitcoin technology is on the horizon with regulations coming out. There are more moving parts at work here than hype.
+1 Reply
dopebroker TheChasm
hype has created the price though. coins are still being mined, and it's being used more as a payment system than anything. we have shorting now so there's more selling pressure, and in all honesty June looks like it was the bubble on a smaller scale. If you look at the buying and selling patterns they mimick eachother if you consider June's mini-bubble the bubble.
+1 Reply
Im going to keep my eye on bit coin. Is there a way to trade options on it?
Reply
MarvinMartian rawtrader
Unfortunately... yes there is now. I'm purposely not directing you to them. =)
Reply
Awesome post... I'm going to quote this idea to hopefully bring some people around to reality.

To add to your concept here, I see this same pattern in the "mee too's", the other altcoins.
-1 Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
Deutschland
France
España
Italia
Polska
Türkiye
Россия
Brasil
Indonesia
Malaysia
Việt Nam
日本
한국
简体
繁體
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Priority Support Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out