BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
206 4
Support level at $240, last line of defense for the Bulls
Based on which arguments do you think the next support level will be @ 240? and not much higher as in the last two rallies?
tuamen Maddie
Hi Maddie, thx for your comments, My support level at $240 is based on technical support of the long term base trend line and the intersection of the current downtrend or correction. It very well may never reach this level, however, if it does I would be happy to add to a long position. My position is not so much as a trader but rather a longer term investor and my conviction that bitcoin represents a better business model than the central banking system offers. In this chart I tried to make it as simple as possible ( for me ) and removed everything that I was not using and left only the trend lines as support and resistance. We may very well have found our bottom at $275 hit last week. I am in a wait and see mode for now. Best of trading to you, very much appreciate your trading ideas and posting of your charts.
+1 Reply
Maddie tuamen
Hmm that's interesting. Totally agree with you on the banking system thing :) I also agree with you on the target you've sett that but I hope we'll never reach that target again hehe. For now there is a good possibility we'll get back to 500$ again :) You could take a look @ my chart and good luck with trading :)
tuamen Maddie
Hi, Thanks for your chart; I've seen it before when you first posted it and gave it a thumbs up. I like your chart, it is nice and clean and a valid pattern and from where price is now is still in play. Also like you target based on a measured move; it lines up nicely with with the heads winds in the $500- $535 area and if we maintain its buoyancy above your neckline and the $400-$420 area, as you already noted, I agree you got a nice working trade. Strangely enough, I considered you chart along with other ideas posted on this site ( love this site by the way), in context with my plan and concluded they can both mutually exist. As you know my perspective is from the weekly chart and with a view of adding and building a long position over a 1 to 2 year time horizon, currently have a cost average at it's current levels ($400ish). If your trade plays out ( and I hope it does for you), it would not invalidate my thesis or my trade plan, in fact, I would consider selling a portion of my longs at your targets, book some profit, and look to buy it back when it eventually tags its long term based trend line albeit at a higher level and probably somewhere in the neighbor of where we are now ,$400ish. But it is important to note, that is the touch down on the long term base trend line that will govern my entries in developing my position. I had also posted a linear chart around the same time your poster your inverse H&S pattern on the 240 time frame ( you can see hear, ), as you can see I have additional structure on this chart and have also found a confluence of support at the $240 area some where near the end of the year or early next year (timing is much more difficult to chart), however my current bearish basis remains intact even if we hit your target. I have also included RSI with default settings and have placed a fib structure on the RSI ( borrowed from Constance Brown, Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional) and while I certainly don't want to speak for Connie, based on my understanding of her use of fibs we are still in at least corrective bearish stage and gives me a level of comfort we will at least tag the long term base trend line (on both the logarithmic and linear scale) before the next major bullish defense and if successful, a search for newer highs. So it doesn't really matter to me if price moves up first from here or holds its current levels as resistance before it finds support at its linear and logarithmic regression. One last thing I should mention, which is often times omitted in our comments, is that my money management with this financial instrument is very much different than what I would normally use on a day trade with fiat currencies, and most notably I have absolutely no leverage and am trading it on a one to one basis allowing me to weather some sever storms as I leave myself plenty of dry power to take advantage of lower levels, depending on what the charts are telling us at that time. Thanks for your charts and you analysis, best of luck on your trade!
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