LarryReaves

Wave 2, Wave 5, or other?

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still good. As prices retest the prior low, bullish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bull market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some negative signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one losses, and prices should rise in a three wave pattern.

Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish . Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).
adapted from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics
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