BTCUSD
Is approaching a historic opportunity to accumulate at the 20 period quarterly ema (orange line). I don't often see people posting crypto ideas on monthly or quarterly charts, but for lazy long term investors they make a lot of sense and help keep you away from your screen. Bitcoin is now mature enough and has a long enough price history to use this kind of analysis.
The prior times we touched this ema were during the 2020 virus hysteria, the end of 2018, and the 2015 bear market bottom (green circles).
In all of those instances we experienced huge gains with an amazing risk/reward structure afterwards.
I've also combined this with some further analysis:
- we are about to touch the bottom trend line of a huge bull channel that we are in (white lines)
- we are in the lower value area of a smaller scale bull channel (yellow lines)
- we are in the lower portion of an ascending schiff pitchfork that seems very well tuned to the market structure, it could show potential market edges (gray lines)
- the RSI is at an all time low
If you're a believer in the value and fundamentals of bitcoin, now seems like an excellent time to structure a long term swing trade or to begin heavily DCA'ing into the market.
If you want to play it safer you could wait for the RSI to start heading up for a less aggressive entry.
With all of that being said, this idea and a lot of other similar ideas I've seen are relying on a number of data points countable with your fingers, which is of absolutely ZERO statistical significance.
In the end this is pure speculation and really only applies to the people who were going to buy BTC for the long haul anyway, but they were waiting for a smart time to get in.
If that sounds like you, now just may be the time to put some skin in the game and enter the market.
I've structured an example trade on the chart that would give a 6.5 risk/reward if it plays out; however, I am personally just going to DCA and accumulate over time as the price potentially goes lower.
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Just checked the chart for the 4th time this year. Still on track for Q4 2023.
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Just checked the chart for the first time this year. Still on track for Q1 2024.
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Checking the chart for the second time this year. Congrats, we nailed it boys.