BITCOIN EXTREMELY CRUCIAL POINT NOW - Inv HS + broadening Bottom
BITCOIN EXTREMELY CRUCIAL POINT NOW - Inv HS + broadening Bottom
Dear friends and traders!
A new analysis for Bitcoin on the 12 hour chart!
Bitcoin has currently arrived at a crucial point. The top of the range but there are new elements.
We see clearly a broadening bottom but also an inverted head shoulder formation and a very strong resistance in the form of a descending red trend line.
The red downward trendline and the blue trendline of the broadening bottem have crossed and the price is exact at this point!
Note that at this point my previous analysis with the range / bearflag is still valid but it can change very soon with a bullish breakout.
How to proceed now?
If Bitcoin breaks out above the red descending trend line, the broadening bottom is also broken upwards. Targets are then 53690 - 56679 and 60176.
But beware, the volume is too low, there are negative divergences in Rsi, Stochastics and others. Also, there is the regulations that put negative pressure on the market and China that wants to ban Crypto. Binance has completely removed trading in derivatives on several countries! Among others in the Netherlands, Germany Hong Kong and others.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to breakout, it is the perfect moment to buy at a re-test of the Red / Blue trend line for the targets mentioned above. The situation has changed then to bullish for a longer term! Expect till end of 2021 with much higher targets!
In the case of a pullback, it's another process to see how far Bitcoin can fall back. A breakout at the bottom of the broadening bottom has as targets 15776 and 10000 USD.
So if the price cannot break through the Red and Blue trend line we are already back in the range and you can trade perfectly on shorter timeframes.
So it will be very exciting and we will know soon if there is a Bullish scenario or another price moving in the range.
Please note, going LONG safely is waiting for a retest of the Red/Blue trend line so as not to have an eventual bulltrap.
--- > In this market I advice to use tight stops. <---
Please share your thoughts and idea's below dear friends. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Dear friends and traders!
A new analysis for Bitcoin on the 12 hour chart!
Bitcoin has currently arrived at a crucial point. The top of the range but there are new elements.
We see clearly a broadening bottom but also an inverted head shoulder formation and a very strong resistance in the form of a descending red trend line.
The red downward trendline and the blue trendline of the broadening bottem have crossed and the price is exact at this point!
Note that at this point my previous analysis with the range / bearflag is still valid but it can change very soon with a bullish breakout.
How to proceed now?
If Bitcoin breaks out above the red descending trend line, the broadening bottom is also broken upwards. Targets are then 53690 - 56679 and 60176.
But beware, the volume is too low, there are negative divergences in Rsi, Stochastics and others. Also, there is the regulations that put negative pressure on the market and China that wants to ban Crypto. Binance has completely removed trading in derivatives on several countries! Among others in the Netherlands, Germany Hong Kong and others.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to breakout, it is the perfect moment to buy at a re-test of the Red / Blue trend line for the targets mentioned above. The situation has changed then to bullish for a longer term! Expect till end of 2021 with much higher targets!
In the case of a pullback, it's another process to see how far Bitcoin can fall back. A breakout at the bottom of the broadening bottom has as targets 15776 and 10000 USD.
So if the price cannot break through the Red and Blue trend line we are already back in the range and you can trade perfectly on shorter timeframes.
So it will be very exciting and we will know soon if there is a Bullish scenario or another price moving in the range.
Please note, going LONG safely is waiting for a retest of the Red/Blue trend line so as not to have an eventual bulltrap.
--- > In this market I advice to use tight stops. <---
Please share your thoughts and idea's below dear friends. What do you think and why do you think it with or without a chart.
I wish you all good luck with trading!
Disclaimer This is my view, no advice to buy or sell. Also always do your own research!
--->> Dear friends please follow me for updates and give me support with a like 👍 if you like me to continue this work. Thanks 💚
Comment:
UPDATE
Dear Friends,
Normally I use linear charts for the shorter term and logarithmic charts for the longer term.
I am being alerted by my best friend Vertheint in the discussion below about the fact that he uses only log scale and there the trend line for Bitcoin has not been broken yet. That is indeed correct and is an interesting and very useful observation.
The credits for this trend line therefore go to Vertheint and I am glad that we are coming to constructive things together in this way. That is also the very purpose of posting ideas. Together we simply know more and this proves that once again. So thanks Verheint for your very helpful comment.
I have made a chart below using the Logarithmic scale and although the difference is small, the price has not broken out which is the case on the linear scale.
I am convinced that the price is not going to break easely out even on the logarithmic scale due to many factors including the divergences, the trend lines, the fundamental change for the crypto market by regulating it. The regulating is already busy with Binance forcing everyone under 2 BTC to identify themselves. This info will than be shared with gouvernments and tax services. Not to talk about money which was invested in Crypto where the owner cannot proof it's origine.
Is this a frightening situation? Yes you bet it is and it would be very strange if the crypto market starts setting new tops with this info. Anything is possible of course, I am neither bull nor bear but just follow the market and any direction is good! As long as there is movement you can make money :-)
On the other hand, I also don't immediately believe in a very hard crash now to 10000 and this because the unlimited printed FED dollars are almost all injected into the stock markets and also indirectly into the Cryptos.
If you look at the stock market, a severe correction is long overdue with the pandemic, the unimaginably high debt mountain that the world has added and it is still far from over. So why no crash? Because of the trillions of Euros and Dollars that are unlimitedly printed as toilet paper and injected by the big funds who have access to these Fed Dollars!
And below the chart, one picture says more than a thousand words ;-)
Dear Friends,
Normally I use linear charts for the shorter term and logarithmic charts for the longer term.
I am being alerted by my best friend Vertheint in the discussion below about the fact that he uses only log scale and there the trend line for Bitcoin has not been broken yet. That is indeed correct and is an interesting and very useful observation.
The credits for this trend line therefore go to Vertheint and I am glad that we are coming to constructive things together in this way. That is also the very purpose of posting ideas. Together we simply know more and this proves that once again. So thanks Verheint for your very helpful comment.
I have made a chart below using the Logarithmic scale and although the difference is small, the price has not broken out which is the case on the linear scale.
I am convinced that the price is not going to break easely out even on the logarithmic scale due to many factors including the divergences, the trend lines, the fundamental change for the crypto market by regulating it. The regulating is already busy with Binance forcing everyone under 2 BTC to identify themselves. This info will than be shared with gouvernments and tax services. Not to talk about money which was invested in Crypto where the owner cannot proof it's origine.
Is this a frightening situation? Yes you bet it is and it would be very strange if the crypto market starts setting new tops with this info. Anything is possible of course, I am neither bull nor bear but just follow the market and any direction is good! As long as there is movement you can make money :-)
On the other hand, I also don't immediately believe in a very hard crash now to 10000 and this because the unlimited printed FED dollars are almost all injected into the stock markets and also indirectly into the Cryptos.
If you look at the stock market, a severe correction is long overdue with the pandemic, the unimaginably high debt mountain that the world has added and it is still far from over. So why no crash? Because of the trillions of Euros and Dollars that are unlimitedly printed as toilet paper and injected by the big funds who have access to these Fed Dollars!
And below the chart, one picture says more than a thousand words ;-)
Comment:
Dear friends,
On the linear scale Bitcoin has broken out but not on the logarithmic scale yet. The price is now against the orange trendline and we see also a big negative divergence in the RSI. There are also negative divergences in the Stochastics and others indicators. The RSI is overbought.
Personally, I would wait for the final breakout to the upside and only buy on a retest of the orange trendline. You can then perfectly use a 1 hour chart with RSI and buy Bitcoin if the RSI is oversold. At least you have a better price and a much tighter stop. This increases your risk reward which is extremely important.
However, in the scenario that the price does not break through this falling orange trend line, BTC will of course go down again. We will soon know its final direction.
Succes and safe trading dear friends!
On the linear scale Bitcoin has broken out but not on the logarithmic scale yet. The price is now against the orange trendline and we see also a big negative divergence in the RSI. There are also negative divergences in the Stochastics and others indicators. The RSI is overbought.
Personally, I would wait for the final breakout to the upside and only buy on a retest of the orange trendline. You can then perfectly use a 1 hour chart with RSI and buy Bitcoin if the RSI is oversold. At least you have a better price and a much tighter stop. This increases your risk reward which is extremely important.
However, in the scenario that the price does not break through this falling orange trend line, BTC will of course go down again. We will soon know its final direction.
Succes and safe trading dear friends!
Comment:
IMPORTANT
Friends here is an actual update.
Nothing has changed as you see. The trenline on log scale is still not broken. We have some very large negative divergences in RSI, Stohastics, StochRSI, Volume and others. The volume also very low.
Last but not least. The price is sitting right at the 0.618 fib retracement and that is often strong resistance.
If Bitcoin breaks now, buy BTC on a pullback / re-test of the orange trendline otherwise wait and see untill where it will correct for a nice discount!
Friends here is an actual update.
Nothing has changed as you see. The trenline on log scale is still not broken. We have some very large negative divergences in RSI, Stohastics, StochRSI, Volume and others. The volume also very low.
Last but not least. The price is sitting right at the 0.618 fib retracement and that is often strong resistance.
If Bitcoin breaks now, buy BTC on a pullback / re-test of the orange trendline otherwise wait and see untill where it will correct for a nice discount!
Comment:
An update,
Dear Friends,
We see the a bearish rising wedge along with a large negative divergence. Time for a correction but no time to buy now. Waiting is the message and keep an eye on price action. The price could possibly rise to 50000 USD but the Risk Reward is far too low at this time as the risk of a sudden drop is now far greater than a big rise.
Divergences work very well in crypto so watch this wedge carefully.
Good luck!
Dear Friends,
We see the a bearish rising wedge along with a large negative divergence. Time for a correction but no time to buy now. Waiting is the message and keep an eye on price action. The price could possibly rise to 50000 USD but the Risk Reward is far too low at this time as the risk of a sudden drop is now far greater than a big rise.
Divergences work very well in crypto so watch this wedge carefully.
Good luck!
Comment:
WEDGE
Dear Friends,
Bitcoin is moving in an ascending trend channel. Watch closely for the bottom of this trend channel which has now become support
The turquoise line is the neckline of the inverted HS formation. Untill this level the price will correct minimal. Price can also rebound here. Remember that a failing inverted HS would be a strong bearish signal. So if the price drops further through the 0.618 fib level of 43340 usd, 39900 usd will soon be in the picture.
The negative RSI divergence RSI will certainly have its effect.
Good luck!
Dear Friends,
Bitcoin is moving in an ascending trend channel. Watch closely for the bottom of this trend channel which has now become support
The turquoise line is the neckline of the inverted HS formation. Untill this level the price will correct minimal. Price can also rebound here. Remember that a failing inverted HS would be a strong bearish signal. So if the price drops further through the 0.618 fib level of 43340 usd, 39900 usd will soon be in the picture.
The negative RSI divergence RSI will certainly have its effect.
Good luck!
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
Dear Friends.
Bitcoin is in the process of a correction in response to heavy negative divergences.
However, I now think that this was Bitcoin's top but confirmation of that depends on the big green bearish rising wedge and the neckline of inverted head and shoulders formation.
It is currently pointless to give long term targets but we better work step by step. So now first the neckline and the wedge. If the neckline does not hold then this is a not good signal. It means we head to the bottom of the wedge. Once there the Inverted HS is invalidated and probably the rise above a bull trap. So take care and if BTC bounces on the neckline, it needs good volume and a more than average green candle.
Always use the 1-2% rule. This is never risk more that this on your total trading capital in uncorrelated assets. If assets are correlated then the risk is bigger and so the position size need to be reduced.
Good luck friends!
Bitcoin is in the process of a correction in response to heavy negative divergences.
However, I now think that this was Bitcoin's top but confirmation of that depends on the big green bearish rising wedge and the neckline of inverted head and shoulders formation.
It is currently pointless to give long term targets but we better work step by step. So now first the neckline and the wedge. If the neckline does not hold then this is a not good signal. It means we head to the bottom of the wedge. Once there the Inverted HS is invalidated and probably the rise above a bull trap. So take care and if BTC bounces on the neckline, it needs good volume and a more than average green candle.
Always use the 1-2% rule. This is never risk more that this on your total trading capital in uncorrelated assets. If assets are correlated then the risk is bigger and so the position size need to be reduced.
Good luck friends!
Comment:
Update
For the so many time already the correction doesn't set in. Unfortunately, nothing has changed. The negative divergence is getting bigger and bigger. There has been no correction of any significance yet. The volume is way too low and does not follow the rising price.
Keep a very close eye on 47500! This is an intersection of horizontal resistance and other trend lines.
My advice is patience without fomo! There will be plenty of opportunities but first Bitcoin has to go through resistance of 47500 and there has to be a reaction to the divergence. Going long with this divergence look more like gambling than trading and the Risk Reward is not good.
Good luck dear friends
For the so many time already the correction doesn't set in. Unfortunately, nothing has changed. The negative divergence is getting bigger and bigger. There has been no correction of any significance yet. The volume is way too low and does not follow the rising price.
Keep a very close eye on 47500! This is an intersection of horizontal resistance and other trend lines.
My advice is patience without fomo! There will be plenty of opportunities but first Bitcoin has to go through resistance of 47500 and there has to be a reaction to the divergence. Going long with this divergence look more like gambling than trading and the Risk Reward is not good.
Good luck dear friends
Comment:
Update
Update
In this chart you see 4 smaller wedges inside a larger one.
Keep an eye on the lower trendline of the green wedge. We still have this big divergence which sooner or later will play out with a decline but BTC is pretty strong after this massive rally from the bottom. I will not advice to short this but preferable wait for a good buy moment.
Good luck dear friends!
Update
In this chart you see 4 smaller wedges inside a larger one.
Keep an eye on the lower trendline of the green wedge. We still have this big divergence which sooner or later will play out with a decline but BTC is pretty strong after this massive rally from the bottom. I will not advice to short this but preferable wait for a good buy moment.
Good luck dear friends!
Comment:
Dear friends,
Here a short update.
Bitcoin is busy testing the blue line of the broadening bottom / inverted HS.
If it fails to hold and fall below then the Inverted HS is invalidated and we see the target of a bigger rising wedge.
If Bitcoin holds and bounce on the blue line than the inverted HS is once more validated and we can see higher targets as described in the original analysis.
Succes dear friends!
Here a short update.
Bitcoin is busy testing the blue line of the broadening bottom / inverted HS.
If it fails to hold and fall below then the Inverted HS is invalidated and we see the target of a bigger rising wedge.
If Bitcoin holds and bounce on the blue line than the inverted HS is once more validated and we can see higher targets as described in the original analysis.
Succes dear friends!
Comment:
Update
Hello dear friends,
I have just made an interesting new analysis for Bitcoin in a new post.
My older posts are also still valid but there are new developments in Bitcoin which need your attention.
I wish you all very good luck with trading
Hello dear friends,
I have just made an interesting new analysis for Bitcoin in a new post.
My older posts are also still valid but there are new developments in Bitcoin which need your attention.
I wish you all very good luck with trading
Comment:
You can see it here:
It now depends if Bitcoin can break through the trend lines with force and we will see this within the 24 hours.
Good luck best friends!