derfred

Where will the new trendline be?

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
It looks like the Bitcoin price is growing exponentially. But it can't do so forever, sooner or later finite scale effects will kick in. Actually, they already have.

Looking at the 2013 bubble, we can estimate the low for this bubble (around 4.4k) and where the next trendline will form: From the high in 2013 it took 13 months for the price to cross the previous trendline (marked 1). Upon touching the trendline, the price fell about 25%. Then it took 9 months of sideways motion for the price to touch the new trendline (marked 2).

After almost 13 months we are now close to touching the current trendline again. Extrapolating 9 months of sideways motion shows us where the new trendline (taking into account a sub-exponential longterm growth trajectory) will be.
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