oaksacorn

Finding Asset Identity

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
372 5 5
Gold             has been, since ancient history, a special asset. Bitcoin is on its path to becoming a special asset. Some could successfully argue that Bitcoin shares many characteristics to gold             . Wave III             may be upon us. It could project to 126,876 using 11/2011 - 11/2013; 2.25 - 1163; 1.618 factor.
(1163-2.25)/2.25) = 51,588% *1.618 = 83,470%.
Use the low of II - 152             to set the projection.
152* 83,470% = 126,876

How does this projection compare to fundamental Bitcoin given gold             characteristics and a current price factor:
167,000.00 tonnes = 35,274.00 oz/ton
oz gold: 5,890,758,000.00 price: 1123
1 bitcoins: 14,000,000.00 price: 296
Price factor: 3.794
Valuation: 5,890,758,000/14,000,000.00 = 420.77 - 421 oz gold             to 1 btc
421 * 296 = 124,547.45
This number goes to 472,522 using a 1:1 price factor but that is a story for wave V.


US True money supply growth since the year I was born (1959) - 4233%. Rest of the world - way higher of a percentage.

There are 16,000,000 millionaires currently in the world. If they all decided to put 100k of their money in an asset ....something that can't be duplicated and has a cap of 21M like bitcoin.... then the price would immediately go to 114,286 USD given current 14M coins.

Currently, the planets total wealth is estimated to be 87 Trillion. If just 3% of that wealth decides to own bitcoin (and there are decent reasons to own btc), then btc goes to 124,286. If you believe bitcoin is viable and real and has a future, then it is severely miss-priced. It is currently being priced as a possible failure with just a "tad" bit of optionality. I don't think it is a complete failure. I think it has substance. Just 3% if the planets wealth needs to agree to get to 127,000 USD.

So, no big deal.... and I am not kidding you. I think we trade there by some time in 2018.

+1 Reply
rivet.popper oaksacorn
I think I'm in love.
Reply
oaksacorn rivet.popper
With me? Or bitcoin? :-)
Reply
what ....... 127.000USD
Are you kidding me ....
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Macainian khoilevt
I find it funny when people freak out about prices going that high. It is only 100 times what the all time high so far was. Why is it crazy that it goes from 1k to 100k, but it is totally sensible that it goes from $10 to $1000 in about a year's time?

Obviously there is a limit to how high it can go in X amount of time, but 1k to 100k is definitely not farfetched. If you had a penny stock and I told you it was going to a dollar, you wouldn't freak out too much about that (of course this is putting aside any doubts you may personally have about penny stocks), because that type of thing happens all the time.

I guess my point is, think % not $ and then everything seems more feasible.
+1 Reply
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