Btc wants to wick down to the 200 day MA

If we look at this simple chart of the 4h, it is clear that the 200 day hasn't been touched in almost 6 weeks, which is historically the longest period of time without a touch. My analysis calls for a grind sideways to lower until we touch that area, at which time I expect a hard bounce.

If we are to follow recent price action, in which we have seen consolidation Sunday into Wednesday, then I expect this to happen soon, followed by a nice end of week rally.