6 months ago
Major low, then two higher lows in the interim. Another major low (but higher), then two higher lows in the interim. Will we get another major low (but higher yet again)? Then two more interim lows...then moon? Not to say this is a reliable pattern just yet, but just something i noticed.
6 months ago
I think there is simply no room for the current decline to "fit" into previously established upward pattern. The tip of the pennant was way too narrow to allow for ANY downward movement, but we did. Given (1) the current highly negative atmosphere within the community, (2) major attention shift to the alternative to bitcoin technology and (3) the fact that today some people are beginning to see that the "magic halving" may quite possibly turn into a very negative event (when miners start turning off their equipment after reward decreases by 50%), the Bitcoin price decrease we are seeng now, may be the start of a new downward pattern.
Gluck with that, it's certainly a nice story/narrative, and seems to be a popular trading sentiment in the midst of all this ETH euphoria, but to me that type of thinking will have you buying the top in ETH and selling the bottom in btc, my picture is painted wildly different from yours. But time will tell.
Fair enough, don't mean to judge you. But regardless of what camp your in, to me your points just don't hold much water. The "highly negative atmosphere" is totally subjective, there has always been drama in btc development, I'm more optimistic now than ever in terms of what is being accomplished in pragmatic sense--with the thunder network, segwit, sidechains etc. If the market actually cared about any of the BS u speak of in a meaningful way the price would have crashed after mike hearn left and never recovered, of after all the craig wright satoshi drama and subsequent deriding of Gavin thereafter. But the market doesn't care, unless you are going to try to attribute the price dropping a bit over the last week to that. In terms of the "major attention shift to alternative bitcoin technology" you are obviously alluding to ETH which really is no threat to bitcoins long term viability in any sense, it is trying to capture the smart contract/crowdfunding/DAO etc space which is totally independent of all the use-cases that bitcoin is striving to achieve. Some of the stuff that ETH aims to do can possibly be done with bitcoin through Rootstock, CP, or what have you but it doesn't go both ways, ETH is not trying to become money, digital gold, or a scarce digital asset. ETH may succeed wildly or something else may win out in that space, i don't know, but it's pretty irrelevant to bitcoins future. I mean, sure, if you are an ignorant reporter I get it, but anyone who understands what type of use-cases bitcoin is trying to fulfill understands how different they are, and how their success's are not mutually exclusive. I would be much more worried about some type of layer above on bitcoin that can accomplish what eth is trying to accomplish then people using eth to evade capital controls in countries with collapsing currencies, to send money home to their family, to use it as a swiss bank account, etc. If that makes any sense.