coinomist
Long

Profit Ratio Analysis

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1180 4 0
On log-scale I have identified correction events that seem to be related (profit-taking range). I also assume that people get more confident and wait longer until next profit is taken, which is however in contrast to the shortening of the time it takes to increas price From regression analysis of the last 3 identified events, I have estimated a 2-4 day window for the next target to be reached. However right now it seems that it will take longer to reach next target (around 1000-1200), as it probably represents a strong psychological barrier. Anyway, slow growth may be interpreted to have organic character. 1000-1200 are also in line with a 2 SD             from the monthly vwap , which has been proven to be a consistent indicator for longterm btcusd             positions. What do you think?
It is about time for target reach. It took longer compared to the shortening pattern of the other 3 time windows.
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strike ;-)
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Nice job here,
but you might reconsider using BTC-e as reference. They appear to be selectively scamming people, holding their money/coins in order to keep their pricing low and to generate profits for themselves. Verifiable via a search of the forums.
A more accurate price might be the the avg price of additional exchanges.
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coinomist NickHill
thanks. i think you are right, one should derive a weighted price out of several exchanges, where the weights somehow represent confidence in the exchange. however, so far i did not have any problems with btce.
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