Bullish scenario: Bitcoin rallies through ~350, while smoothed RSI continues past 0.5 and Stochastic remains bullish at the time.
Bearish scenario: Bitcoin plummets below ~320. Smoothed RSI continues to remain oversold, and bearish signals produced by stochastic. Keep in mind a Santa rally or new years rally may bless Bitcoin. Even if Bitcoin achieves these levels, many traders may see it as a cheap opportunity to scoop up bitcoins, thus buying pressure,thus a move back above 320. I would not bet on intermediate term bearish conditions.
REASONING:
-Last 2 candles (how they currently are) show indecision.
-Indecision on 12-20/12-21. Followed by a bullish engulfing candle on 12-22. This is a confirmation of uptrend.
-Indecision on 12-18/12-19. Followed by a bullish engulfing candle on 12-20. This is a uptrend confirmation
-Bulls maintained power for last 3 days, and 5 out of the last 6 days. In the short term the bulls have been winning out
-Smoothed RSI shows oversold conditions. RSI continues to move upward
-Smoothed Stochastic breakout from bearish divergence channel after generating and maintaining a buy signal.
Conclusion:
From a fundamental point of view, Bitcoin is very undervalued. And the recent declines only increase the probability of upside as the selling continued. Bitcoin appears to have found a bottom around ~300, and heavy buying (bulls took control) brought it back up. Uptrend confirmations have shown that buying has continued. Considered lots of Russians are buying lots of Bitcoins right now to avoid the demise of the ruble, this could explain it. As well, lots of traders could be buying right now under the belief that lots of Russians will be buying; thereby creating buying pressure and pushing the price higher. I maintain a neutral rating right now as there are not clear enough signals to say there will be a Bitcoin rally or further downside. Rather, we must wait and see what happens. For a breakout, I want to see a move above ~350, and for a breakdown I want to see a move below ~320.
Bearish scenario: Bitcoin plummets below ~320. Smoothed RSI continues to remain oversold, and bearish signals produced by stochastic. Keep in mind a Santa rally or new years rally may bless Bitcoin. Even if Bitcoin achieves these levels, many traders may see it as a cheap opportunity to scoop up bitcoins, thus buying pressure,thus a move back above 320. I would not bet on intermediate term bearish conditions.
REASONING:
-Last 2 candles (how they currently are) show indecision.
-Indecision on 12-20/12-21. Followed by a bullish engulfing candle on 12-22. This is a confirmation of uptrend.
-Indecision on 12-18/12-19. Followed by a bullish engulfing candle on 12-20. This is a uptrend confirmation
-Bulls maintained power for last 3 days, and 5 out of the last 6 days. In the short term the bulls have been winning out
-Smoothed RSI shows oversold conditions. RSI continues to move upward
-Smoothed Stochastic breakout from bearish divergence channel after generating and maintaining a buy signal.
Conclusion:
From a fundamental point of view, Bitcoin is very undervalued. And the recent declines only increase the probability of upside as the selling continued. Bitcoin appears to have found a bottom around ~300, and heavy buying (bulls took control) brought it back up. Uptrend confirmations have shown that buying has continued. Considered lots of Russians are buying lots of Bitcoins right now to avoid the demise of the ruble, this could explain it. As well, lots of traders could be buying right now under the belief that lots of Russians will be buying; thereby creating buying pressure and pushing the price higher. I maintain a neutral rating right now as there are not clear enough signals to say there will be a Bitcoin rally or further downside. Rather, we must wait and see what happens. For a breakout, I want to see a move above ~350, and for a breakdown I want to see a move below ~320.